Question
Treck Co. expects to pay 350,000 in one month for its imports from Northern Ireland. It also expects to receive 325,000 for its exports to
Treck Co. expects to pay 350,000 in one month for its imports from Northern Ireland. It also expects to receive 325,000 for its exports to Scotland in one month. Treck Co. estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the pound to be 2% percent over the last 3 years. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VaR) method based on a 95 percent confidence level, what is the maximum one-month loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the pound during next month is -2 percent? The current spot rate of the pound (before considering the maximum one-month loss) is $1.38.
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