Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

Ukraine's Westward drift since independence has been countered by the sometimes violent tug of Russia, felt most recently with Putin's 2022 invasion.

A protester sits on a monument in Kyiv during clashes with riot police in February 2014.Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty

WRITTEN BY

Jonathan Masters

UPDATED

Last updated October 11, 2022 7:00 am (EST)

Summary

• Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has set alight one of the bloodiest conflicts in Europe since World War II.
• A former Soviet republic, Ukraine had deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Russia, but the war could irreparably harm their relations.
• Some experts view the Russia-Ukraine war as a manifestation of renewed geopolitical rivalry between major world powers.

Introduction

Ukraine has long played an important, yet sometimes overlooked, role in the global security order. Today, the country is on the front lines of a renewed great-power rivalry that many analysts say will dominate international relations in the decades ahead.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a dramatic escalation of the countries' eight-year-old conflict and a historic turning point for European security. After six months, many defense and foreign policy analysts cast the war as a major strategic blunder by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and one that has put his long-time rule in jeopardy.

Many observers see little prospect for a diplomatic resolution in the months ahead and instead acknowledge the potential for a dangerous escalation, which could include Russia's use of a nuclear weapon. The war has hastened Ukraine's push to join Western political blocs, including the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

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Why is Ukraine a geopolitical flash point?

Ukraine was a cornerstone of the Soviet Union, the archrival of the United States during the Cold War. Behind only Russia, it was the second-most-populous and -powerful of the fifteen Soviet republics, home to much of the union's agricultural production, defense industries, and military, including the Black Sea Fleet and some of the nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was so vital to the union that its decision to sever ties in 1991 proved to be a coup de grce for the ailing superpower. In its three decades of independence, Ukraine has sought to forge its own path as a sovereign state while looking to align more closely with Western institutions, including theEUand NATO. However, Kyiv struggled to balance its foreign relations and to bridgedeep internal divisions. A more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking population in western parts of the country generally supported greater integration with Europe, while a mostly Russian-speaking community in the east favored closer ties with Russia.

What are U.S. and EU policy in Ukraine?

The United States remains committed to the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. It does not recognize Russia's claims to Crimea or the other regions unlawfully annexed by Russia. Prior to the 2022 invasion, the United States supported a settlement of the Donbas conflict viathe Minsk agreements[PDF].

Western powers and their partners have taken many steps to increase aid to Ukraine and punish Russia for its 2022 offensive. As of October, the United States has provided Ukraine$17 billion in security assistance[PDF], including advanced rocket and missile systems, helicopters, and lethal drones. Several NATO allies are providing similar security aid.

Meanwhile, theinternational sanctionson Russia have vastly expanded, covering much of its financial, energy, defense, and tech sectors and targeting the assets of wealthy oligarchs and other individuals. The U.S. and some European governments also banned some Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a financial messaging system known as SWIFT; placed restrictions on Russia's ability to access its vast foreign reserves; and blacklisted Russia's central bank. Moreover, many influential Western companies have shuttered or suspended operations in Russia. The Group of Eight, now known as theGroup of Seven, suspended Russia from its ranks indefinitely in 2014.

The invasion also cost Russia its long-awaited Nord Stream 2 pipeline after Germany suspended its regulatory approval in February. Many critics, including U.S. and Ukrainian officials, opposed the natural gas pipeline during its development, claiming it would give Russia greater political leverage over Ukraine and the European gas market. In August, Russia indefinitely suspended operations of Nord Stream 1, which provided the European market with as much as a third of its natural gas.

What do Ukrainians want?

Russia's aggression in recent years has galvanized public support for Ukraine's Westward leanings. In the wake of Euromaidan, the country elected as president the billionaire businessman Petro Poroshenko, a staunch proponent of EU and NATO integration. In 2019, Zelensky defeated Poroshenko in a sign of the public's deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment and its halting battle against corruption and an oligarchic economy.

Before the 2022 offensive, polls indicated that Ukrainians held mixed views onNATO and EU membership. More than half of those surveyed (not including residents of Crimea and the contested regions in the east) supported EU membership, while 40 to 50 percent were in favor of joining NATO. Just days after the invasion, President Zelenskyy requested that the EU put Ukraine on a fast track to membership. The country became an official candidate in June, butexperts cautionthat the membership process could take years. In September, Zelenskyy submitted aformal application for Ukraineto join NATO, pushing for an accelerated admission process for that bloc as well. Many Western analysts say that, similar to Ukraine's EU bid, NATO membership does not seem likely in the near term.