Question
Upon successfully bidding for a project, your client approaches you with an alternative arrangement. Instead of a lump-sum turnkey contract with a net present value
Upon successfully bidding for a project, your client approaches you with an alternative arrangement. Instead of a lump-sum turnkey contract with a net present value of $34.9 million, they are willing to convert the project to a regular Engineering and Construction contract, where you bill the client for your cost. To align incentives, the client proposes that to ensure your profitability, they give you a 10% stake in the company that controls the project (called ManCo), a company that basically oversees construction, manages the facility afterward, and distributes the profits from the project to its owners. ManCo's CFO sees the current NPV of the project at $300 million, so your 10% stake of that would be worth $30 million. Your auditors have checked this estimate and consider it a fair value. But your auditors also warn you that there is considerable risk in this value at the end of the project, ManCo may be worth as little as 10, or as much as 600 million dollars. Cost variations are a key reason for this risk. They expect that the probability distribution of the value of your stake in ManCo is a uniform one (i.e. equal probabilities) over all possible values from $1 to $60 million. After some negotiations, your CEO is able to obtain a guarantee from ManCo that you can convert this 10% stake at any time for a $20 million lump-sum payout. For simplicity, assume that you would find out very quickly after signing the contract (i.e. within the first year) what the final value of your stake is.
Calculate the Net Present Value and Expected Value of this deal.
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