Question
Use data below to create a file with monthly data from January 2015 to December 2017 for Hansen Company. The first variable is Time. The
Use data below to create a file with monthly data from January 2015 to December 2017 for Hansen Company. The first variable is Time. The second variable, Sales 1, has data on sales of a product 1. The third variable, Sales 2, has data on sales of a product 2.
Part 1: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer the following questions.
What are the forecasts for the January of the year 2018 and evaluate the MSE using the Moving Average with MA(3), and MA(12).
Which appears to provide the best fit for this data (explain why)?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method (explain).
Can you apply this forecasting method to the third variable, Sales 2 (Explain)?
Part 2: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer following questions
What are the forecasts for the January of the year 2018 using the exponential smoothing method with ?
Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of that minimizes MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value . What is the forecast for the January of the year 2018 based on the optimal value of ?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method (explain).
Can you apply this forecasting method to the third variable, Sales 2 (Explain)?
Part 3: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer following questions
What is the forecast for October of the year 2018 using Holts method with ?
Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of smoothing constants ( ) that minimize MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value of.
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
Prepare a line graph to compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants against the original data (sales 1).
Can you apply this forecasting method to the third variable, Sales 2 (Explain)?
Part 4: For this problem, use the Sales 2 variable to answer following questions.
What is the forecast for October of the year 2018 using Winters method with ?
Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of smoothing constants ( ) that minimize MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value of.
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
Prepare a line graph to compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants against the original data.
| Monthly sales data | ||||
| Month | Sales1 | Sales2 | ||
| Jan-15 | 1701 | 1189 | ||
| Feb-15 | 1732 | 1209 | ||
| Mar-15 | 1758 | 1754 | ||
| Apr-15 | 1774 | 1843 | ||
| May-15 | 1808 | 1769 | ||
| Jun-15 | 1827 | 2207 | ||
| Jul-15 | 1844 | 2471 | ||
| Aug-15 | 1871 | 2288 | ||
| Sep-15 | 1898 | 1867 | ||
| Oct-15 | 1908 | 1980 | ||
| Nov-15 | 1934 | 1418 | ||
| Dec-15 | 1968 | 1333 | ||
| Jan-16 | 1986 | 1333 | ||
| Feb-16 | 2021 | 1370 | ||
| Mar-16 | 2056 | 2142 | ||
| Apr-16 | 2095 | 2138 | ||
| May-16 | 2122 | 2078 | ||
| Jun-16 | 2143 | 2960 | ||
| Jul-16 | 2168 | 2616 | ||
| Aug-16 | 2207 | 2861 | ||
| Sep-16 | 2226 | 2237 | ||
| Oct-16 | 2255 | 2225 | ||
| Nov-16 | 2283 | 1590 | ||
| Dec-16 | 2309 | 1659 | ||
| Jan-17 | 2338 | 1613 | ||
| Feb-17 | 2382 | 1605 | ||
| Mar-17 | 2400 | 2349 | ||
| Apr-17 | 2452 | 2468 | ||
| May-17 | 2486 | 2532 | ||
| Jun-17 | 2522 | 3127 | ||
| Jul-17 | 2547 | 3288 | ||
| Aug-17 | 2570 | 3285 | ||
| Sep-17 | 2611 | 2485 | ||
| Oct-17 | 2628 | 2723 | ||
| Nov-17 | 2662 | 1835 | ||
| Dec-17 | 2696 | 1894 | ||
| Jan-18 | ||||
| Feb-18 | ||||
| Mar-18 | ||||
| Apr-18 | ||||
| May-18 | ||||
| Jun-18 | ||||
| Jul-18 | ||||
| Aug-18 | ||||
| Sep-18 | ||||
| Oct-18 | ||||
| Nov-18 | ||||
| Dec-18 | ||||
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access with AI-Powered Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started