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Use the data below on WTI, Brent, heating oil and RBOB gasoline in any combination and back-test them against jet fuel to determine the best

  1. Use the data below on WTI, Brent, heating oil and RBOB gasoline in any combination and back-test them against jet fuel to determine the best correlation. Will have to try a multiple regression to see if using two variables or more make it more efficient. Basis risk and the weights of each variable will come into play here.

    For example:

Determine the correlation between the following:

1. WTI vs Jet fuel
2. Brent vs Jet fuel
3. Heating oil vs Jet fuel
4. RBOB Gasoline vs Jet fuel (briefly)

And then back-test them to find the best correlation.

2012 Fuel Hedging at JetBlue Airways JetBlue-Fuel Percentage Hedged (2007–2012, Quarterly) Source: Created by case writer bas

JetBlue-Fuel Percentage Hedged (2007–2012, Quarterly) Information as of 2011 Q4, at which time the hedging programs for 20122012 Fuel Hedging at JetBlue Airways Jet Fuel, Heating Oil, and Crude Oil (WTI and Brent) Spot Prices (2007–2011, Monthly)Jet Fuel, Heating Oil, and Crude Oil (WTI and Brent) Spot Prices (2007-2011, Monthly) Panel B: Difference in prices between J2012 Fuel Hedging at JetBlue Airways Jet Fuel, Heating Oil, WII, and Brent Crucle Oil Spot Prices, 2007-2011 (Monthly)Exhibit 6 (continued)

% Hedged 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 67% 2007Q1 11% 42% 40% 11% 11% 2007Q2 2007Q3 47% 2012 Fuel Hedging at JetBlue Airways JetBlue-Fuel Percentage Hedged (2007-2012, Quarterly) 2007Q4 35% 2008Q1 46% 46% 2008Q2 2008Q3 40% 2008Q4 9% 9% 9% 9% 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q4 2009Q3 44% 5% 15% 2010Q1 19% 19% 5% 5% 18% 18% 19% 2010Q2 201003 3% 24% 5% 2010Q4 1% Hedged - Jet fuel % Hedged - Heating Oil %Hedged - Crude Oil (WTI) Jet fuel [S per gal.] 29% 2011Q1 Source: Created by case writer based on JetBlue Airways investor updates (2007Q1-2012Q3). 5% 36% 201102 7% 9% 14% 32% 10% 201103 2011Q4 9% 9% 21% 7% 7% 7% 2012Q1* 6% 8% 2012Q2* 6% 4% 2012Q3* 2012Q4* 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Jet Fuel I$ per gal.

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