Question
Use the data in the following table showing cumulative default rates for years relative to the issuance of a bond. t=TIme in Years Relative to
Use the data in the following table showing cumulative default rates for years relative to the issuance of a bond.
t=TIme in Years Relative to Date of Issue
Rating | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 20 |
Aaa | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.037 | 0.104 | 0.241 | 0.489 | 0.910 | 1.073 |
Aa | 0.022 | 0.068 | 0.136 | 0.260 | 0.410 | 0.682 | 1.017 | 1.871 | 3.167 |
A | 0.062 | 0.199 | 0.434 | 0.679 | 0.958 | 1.615 | 2.759 | 4.583 | 7.044 |
Baa | 0.174 | 0.504 | 0.906 | 1.373 | 1.862 | 2.872 | 4.623 | 8.306 | 11.989 |
Ba | 1.110 | 3.071 | 5.371 | 7.839 | 10.065 | 13.911 | 19.323 | 28.500 | 35.410 |
B | 3.904 | 9.274 | 14.723 | 19.509 | 23.869 | 31.774 | 40.560 | 50.275 | 55.892 |
Caa_C | 15.894 | 27.003 | 35.800 | 42.796 | 48.828 | 56.878 | 66.212 | 73.152 | 74.946 |
data in percent
What is the probability a Baa rated bond will survive past year 4?
Estimate the hazard rate (default intensity, ) of a Baa rated bond based on the 3-year cumulative default probability
Estimate the hazard rate (default intensity, ) of a Baa rated bond based on the 4-year cumulative default probability
Compute the probability of default for a Baa rated bond during year 4 given that the bond has not defaulted by the end of year 3
Explain why your answers in b. and c. are not the same as in d.
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