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Use the link given below and download the data file(xls) and solve all the questions given under the heading of Deliverables. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XqfrMIWgNBBmjrLOFbQVIGmp044v0Q1x/edit?usp= sharing&Quid=107185680858194851741&tpof=true&sd=true Problem Statement
Use the link given below and download the data file(xls) and solve all the questions given under the heading of Deliverables. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XqfrMIWgNBBmjrLOFbQVIGmp044v0Q1x/edit?usp= sharing&Quid=107185680858194851741&tpof=true&sd=true Problem Statement The increase in price of petrol and Exchange rate of dollar greatly effects the growth of our county. It's the root cause of inflation as well. In this analysis project, the complex problem of regulating the exchange rate of dollar in Pakistan is investigated with respect to change in Petrol prices. The task involves calculating average of both variables (x = Price of Petrol in Pakistan and y = Exchange rate of dollar in Pakistan) and finding the corresponding variability. It involves construction of joint distribution and analyzing the product moment correlation coefficients of the two variables. Afterward generation of a time series for the data is required for the next five years. Inflation problem due to uncertainty in Petrol prices and Dollar exchange rate: Pakistan is a developing country, whose economy is greatly influenced by the petrol prices and as a consequence dollar exchange rate. Pakistan's petroleum import bill hit a record height of $11.69 billion in the first seven months (July-January) of current fiscal year 2021-22 mainly due to a surge in energy prices in the global market and partly due to a pickup in demand in the country. The oil import bill increased by 107% to $11.69 billion in July-January fiscal year 2021-22 compared to $5.64 billion in the same period of previous fiscal year, citing data of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Economic theory suggests that the increase in commodity prices reduces their demand. Accordingly, the drop in demand will help control the import bill and keep the current account deficit within the projected range. Hence petrol prices directly affect the economic growth of our country. This research will facilitate the decision making in keeping balance between oil imports and dollar exchange rate. Deliverables: Marks= [5 (1-5), 5 (6-10)] (1) Finding u of both variables X and Y. (2) Calculating of and o of both variables. (3) Finding the covariance of the data. (4) Drawing the scatter diagram and hence prediction of correlation. (5) Drawing the line of best fit (Regression line). (6) Finding PMCC (product-moment correlation coefficient) for the variables to verify the correlation. (7) Develop a model in SPSS to verify your results of part (1) to (5). (8) Construct a time series of the date to predict increase in X and Y for the next five years. (9) Finding a 99% confidence interval for validating the time series predictions. (10) Discuss the inflation rate in Pakistan in context with dollar exchange rate
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