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Use these data to: 1. Create monthly targets for fiscal year 2016 for an annual forecast $5,121.8 million. Use the following methods to forecast: A.

Use these data to:

1. Create monthly targets for fiscal year 2016 for an annual forecast $5,121.8 million. Use the following methods to forecast: A. Simple Moving Average (SMA) B. Exponential Smoothing (EXS) C. Transformation Moving Average (TMA) D. Single Regression with simple time trend

2. How much is the error between actual collections and your target collections through November (Hint: You will need to use MAPE and APE to identify the error)?

3. In which of the methods do you have the most confidence and why? In which method do you have the least confidence and why?

4. Suppose that you were trying to forecast revenues for 2017. Would you use the same method? Why or why not?

Total JULY AUGUST SEPT. . DEC. JAN. FEB. APRIL MAY JUNE TOTAL 1 2 NOV. 168.8 MARCH 191.2 FY 1995 179.1 194.6 254.4 188.8 202.7 364.9 181.0 345.3 247.8 249.2 2767.7 3 FY 1996 213.7 189.3 278.3 223.9 171.7 191.9 379.0 208.8 188.8 436.1 197.0 287.8 2966.3 4 FY 1997 218.0 197.0 284.3 236.6 194.2 221.0 407.0 241.6 232.9 358.7 349.9 255.3 3196.5 5 269.8 218.4 FY 1998 FY 1999 248.6 257.1 291.4 203.2 240.5 279.9 266.3 397.7 400.6 237.8 305.3 237.5 217.5 393.2 482.3 323.8 313.2 6 286.6 235.8 257.6 234.3 230.0 245.3 245.2 390.8 464.1 422.0 372.2 3434.8 3699.3 3753.3 3779.8 7 FY 2000 256.5 353.6 242.6 480.4 203.1 223.0 461.1 316.7 B FY 2001 303.1 237.9 280.0 236.9 494.9 142.2 222.2 532.9 340.7 371.6 372.2 FY 2002 271.5 216.5 229.0 286.2 443.0 143.8 206.9 485.4 276.6 354.1 3540.8 0 FY 2003 236.3 243.0 405.4 246.7 298.9 434.8 181.7 216.3 462.8 280.9 383.4 255.6 254.1 260.5 297.3 3644.2 3807.9 1 241.7 258.7 403.6 289.4 291.7 160.0 244.5 353.8 359.3 FY 2004 FY 2005 440.9 519.9 503.8 600.9 2 262.5 318.6 399.7 310.0 296.4 143.0 275.4 403.1 4213.2 386.4 415.6 3 FY 2006 286.8 406.4 271.1 565.0 133.0 710.0 281.0 341.5 4 FY 2007 268.5 323.0 342.4 305.5 4322.4 4615.6 437.3 315.4 331.0 369.5 280.3 564.7 273.3 284.9 342.8 151.8 341.9 430.3 379.3 739.3 443.6 5 FY 2008 315.9 287.3 519.1 276.1 562.7 150.8 858.0 470.5 4837.5 4313.7 6 FY 2009 293.2 301.7 511.7 312.1 309.6 473.7 146.5 595.6 356.7 406.7 7 328.1 289.2 278.1 285.4 FY 2010 190.3 313.2 271.5 300.0 110.2 577.8 385.7 331.5 378.2 392.2 442.7 509.7 3875.7 4585.6 8 FY 2011 273.4 342.2 316.9 354.9 325.8 144.5 333.6 601.7 563.1 427.6 9 FY 2012 305.0 352.9 435.1 384.4 333.1 544.1 137.3 337.4 304.8 454.6 4765.4 304.9 315.6 871.8 967.7 20 FY 2013 388.4 308.8 527.4 352.6 322.6 618.9 155.3 239.4 302.0 479.0 4977.7 -1 FY 2014 319.3 305.5 541.4 334.4 304.4 432.3 591.3 121 825.2 287 506.4 4898.7 330.5 333.6 2 FY 2015 340.7 324.9 550.6 370.9 386.5 386.1 592.9 124.1 929.6 357.4 535.6 5232.9 23 FY 2016 349.4 409.3 437.0 438.1 404.9 Total JULY AUGUST SEPT. . DEC. JAN. FEB. APRIL MAY JUNE TOTAL 1 2 NOV. 168.8 MARCH 191.2 FY 1995 179.1 194.6 254.4 188.8 202.7 364.9 181.0 345.3 247.8 249.2 2767.7 3 FY 1996 213.7 189.3 278.3 223.9 171.7 191.9 379.0 208.8 188.8 436.1 197.0 287.8 2966.3 4 FY 1997 218.0 197.0 284.3 236.6 194.2 221.0 407.0 241.6 232.9 358.7 349.9 255.3 3196.5 5 269.8 218.4 FY 1998 FY 1999 248.6 257.1 291.4 203.2 240.5 279.9 266.3 397.7 400.6 237.8 305.3 237.5 217.5 393.2 482.3 323.8 313.2 6 286.6 235.8 257.6 234.3 230.0 245.3 245.2 390.8 464.1 422.0 372.2 3434.8 3699.3 3753.3 3779.8 7 FY 2000 256.5 353.6 242.6 480.4 203.1 223.0 461.1 316.7 B FY 2001 303.1 237.9 280.0 236.9 494.9 142.2 222.2 532.9 340.7 371.6 372.2 FY 2002 271.5 216.5 229.0 286.2 443.0 143.8 206.9 485.4 276.6 354.1 3540.8 0 FY 2003 236.3 243.0 405.4 246.7 298.9 434.8 181.7 216.3 462.8 280.9 383.4 255.6 254.1 260.5 297.3 3644.2 3807.9 1 241.7 258.7 403.6 289.4 291.7 160.0 244.5 353.8 359.3 FY 2004 FY 2005 440.9 519.9 503.8 600.9 2 262.5 318.6 399.7 310.0 296.4 143.0 275.4 403.1 4213.2 386.4 415.6 3 FY 2006 286.8 406.4 271.1 565.0 133.0 710.0 281.0 341.5 4 FY 2007 268.5 323.0 342.4 305.5 4322.4 4615.6 437.3 315.4 331.0 369.5 280.3 564.7 273.3 284.9 342.8 151.8 341.9 430.3 379.3 739.3 443.6 5 FY 2008 315.9 287.3 519.1 276.1 562.7 150.8 858.0 470.5 4837.5 4313.7 6 FY 2009 293.2 301.7 511.7 312.1 309.6 473.7 146.5 595.6 356.7 406.7 7 328.1 289.2 278.1 285.4 FY 2010 190.3 313.2 271.5 300.0 110.2 577.8 385.7 331.5 378.2 392.2 442.7 509.7 3875.7 4585.6 8 FY 2011 273.4 342.2 316.9 354.9 325.8 144.5 333.6 601.7 563.1 427.6 9 FY 2012 305.0 352.9 435.1 384.4 333.1 544.1 137.3 337.4 304.8 454.6 4765.4 304.9 315.6 871.8 967.7 20 FY 2013 388.4 308.8 527.4 352.6 322.6 618.9 155.3 239.4 302.0 479.0 4977.7 -1 FY 2014 319.3 305.5 541.4 334.4 304.4 432.3 591.3 121 825.2 287 506.4 4898.7 330.5 333.6 2 FY 2015 340.7 324.9 550.6 370.9 386.5 386.1 592.9 124.1 929.6 357.4 535.6 5232.9 23 FY 2016 349.4 409.3 437.0 438.1 404.9 Total JULY AUGUST SEPT. . DEC. JAN. FEB. APRIL MAY JUNE TOTAL 1 2 NOV. 168.8 MARCH 191.2 FY 1995 179.1 194.6 254.4 188.8 202.7 364.9 181.0 345.3 247.8 249.2 2767.7 3 FY 1996 213.7 189.3 278.3 223.9 171.7 191.9 379.0 208.8 188.8 436.1 197.0 287.8 2966.3 4 FY 1997 218.0 197.0 284.3 236.6 194.2 221.0 407.0 241.6 232.9 358.7 349.9 255.3 3196.5 5 269.8 218.4 FY 1998 FY 1999 248.6 257.1 291.4 203.2 240.5 279.9 266.3 397.7 400.6 237.8 305.3 237.5 217.5 393.2 482.3 323.8 313.2 6 286.6 235.8 257.6 234.3 230.0 245.3 245.2 390.8 464.1 422.0 372.2 3434.8 3699.3 3753.3 3779.8 7 FY 2000 256.5 353.6 242.6 480.4 203.1 223.0 461.1 316.7 B FY 2001 303.1 237.9 280.0 236.9 494.9 142.2 222.2 532.9 340.7 371.6 372.2 FY 2002 271.5 216.5 229.0 286.2 443.0 143.8 206.9 485.4 276.6 354.1 3540.8 0 FY 2003 236.3 243.0 405.4 246.7 298.9 434.8 181.7 216.3 462.8 280.9 383.4 255.6 254.1 260.5 297.3 3644.2 3807.9 1 241.7 258.7 403.6 289.4 291.7 160.0 244.5 353.8 359.3 FY 2004 FY 2005 440.9 519.9 503.8 600.9 2 262.5 318.6 399.7 310.0 296.4 143.0 275.4 403.1 4213.2 386.4 415.6 3 FY 2006 286.8 406.4 271.1 565.0 133.0 710.0 281.0 341.5 4 FY 2007 268.5 323.0 342.4 305.5 4322.4 4615.6 437.3 315.4 331.0 369.5 280.3 564.7 273.3 284.9 342.8 151.8 341.9 430.3 379.3 739.3 443.6 5 FY 2008 315.9 287.3 519.1 276.1 562.7 150.8 858.0 470.5 4837.5 4313.7 6 FY 2009 293.2 301.7 511.7 312.1 309.6 473.7 146.5 595.6 356.7 406.7 7 328.1 289.2 278.1 285.4 FY 2010 190.3 313.2 271.5 300.0 110.2 577.8 385.7 331.5 378.2 392.2 442.7 509.7 3875.7 4585.6 8 FY 2011 273.4 342.2 316.9 354.9 325.8 144.5 333.6 601.7 563.1 427.6 9 FY 2012 305.0 352.9 435.1 384.4 333.1 544.1 137.3 337.4 304.8 454.6 4765.4 304.9 315.6 871.8 967.7 20 FY 2013 388.4 308.8 527.4 352.6 322.6 618.9 155.3 239.4 302.0 479.0 4977.7 -1 FY 2014 319.3 305.5 541.4 334.4 304.4 432.3 591.3 121 825.2 287 506.4 4898.7 330.5 333.6 2 FY 2015 340.7 324.9 550.6 370.9 386.5 386.1 592.9 124.1 929.6 357.4 535.6 5232.9 23 FY 2016 349.4 409.3 437.0 438.1 404.9 Total JULY AUGUST SEPT. . DEC. JAN. FEB. APRIL MAY JUNE TOTAL 1 2 NOV. 168.8 MARCH 191.2 FY 1995 179.1 194.6 254.4 188.8 202.7 364.9 181.0 345.3 247.8 249.2 2767.7 3 FY 1996 213.7 189.3 278.3 223.9 171.7 191.9 379.0 208.8 188.8 436.1 197.0 287.8 2966.3 4 FY 1997 218.0 197.0 284.3 236.6 194.2 221.0 407.0 241.6 232.9 358.7 349.9 255.3 3196.5 5 269.8 218.4 FY 1998 FY 1999 248.6 257.1 291.4 203.2 240.5 279.9 266.3 397.7 400.6 237.8 305.3 237.5 217.5 393.2 482.3 323.8 313.2 6 286.6 235.8 257.6 234.3 230.0 245.3 245.2 390.8 464.1 422.0 372.2 3434.8 3699.3 3753.3 3779.8 7 FY 2000 256.5 353.6 242.6 480.4 203.1 223.0 461.1 316.7 B FY 2001 303.1 237.9 280.0 236.9 494.9 142.2 222.2 532.9 340.7 371.6 372.2 FY 2002 271.5 216.5 229.0 286.2 443.0 143.8 206.9 485.4 276.6 354.1 3540.8 0 FY 2003 236.3 243.0 405.4 246.7 298.9 434.8 181.7 216.3 462.8 280.9 383.4 255.6 254.1 260.5 297.3 3644.2 3807.9 1 241.7 258.7 403.6 289.4 291.7 160.0 244.5 353.8 359.3 FY 2004 FY 2005 440.9 519.9 503.8 600.9 2 262.5 318.6 399.7 310.0 296.4 143.0 275.4 403.1 4213.2 386.4 415.6 3 FY 2006 286.8 406.4 271.1 565.0 133.0 710.0 281.0 341.5 4 FY 2007 268.5 323.0 342.4 305.5 4322.4 4615.6 437.3 315.4 331.0 369.5 280.3 564.7 273.3 284.9 342.8 151.8 341.9 430.3 379.3 739.3 443.6 5 FY 2008 315.9 287.3 519.1 276.1 562.7 150.8 858.0 470.5 4837.5 4313.7 6 FY 2009 293.2 301.7 511.7 312.1 309.6 473.7 146.5 595.6 356.7 406.7 7 328.1 289.2 278.1 285.4 FY 2010 190.3 313.2 271.5 300.0 110.2 577.8 385.7 331.5 378.2 392.2 442.7 509.7 3875.7 4585.6 8 FY 2011 273.4 342.2 316.9 354.9 325.8 144.5 333.6 601.7 563.1 427.6 9 FY 2012 305.0 352.9 435.1 384.4 333.1 544.1 137.3 337.4 304.8 454.6 4765.4 304.9 315.6 871.8 967.7 20 FY 2013 388.4 308.8 527.4 352.6 322.6 618.9 155.3 239.4 302.0 479.0 4977.7 -1 FY 2014 319.3 305.5 541.4 334.4 304.4 432.3 591.3 121 825.2 287 506.4 4898.7 330.5 333.6 2 FY 2015 340.7 324.9 550.6 370.9 386.5 386.1 592.9 124.1 929.6 357.4 535.6 5232.9 23 FY 2016 349.4 409.3 437.0 438.1 404.9

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