Using data and mathematical models implemented in spreadsheets, the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports developed a national plan to minimize effects of pandemic influenza. Through scenario analysis, scientists examined various intervention options and estimated the number of hospitalizations and deaths. In the base case, in which no intervention was possible, they assumed 30% of the population would become ill with influenza. In the Influenza Vaccination Scenario, they considered two strategies:

1. Vaccinate two risk groups, persons 65 years of age or older (N = 2.78 million (M)) and healthcare workers (N = 0.80 M)

2. Vaccinate the total population (N = 15.6 M)

They assumed the vaccine to be 56% effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths for the older at-risk group and 80% effective for those younger than 65. Develop a model for the first strategy. With no intervention, assume a hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza and influ enza-related illnesses of 125 (per 100,000) for persons 65 years of age or older and a rate (per 100,000) of 50 for the younger age group; and assume death rates (per 100,000) of 56 and15, respectively, for the two age groups. (In the actual study, scientists considered three age groups and a more involved set of input variables; van Genugten et al. 2003)