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Using the data in Exhibits 1 and 2, estimate equity betas and asset betas for WFM, KR, SFM, and SVU using five years of returns
- Using the data in Exhibits 1 and 2, estimate equity betasandasset betas for WFM, KR, SFM, and SVU using five years of returns (or from origination, in the case of SFM) and the value-weighted market index. How do the three companies' asset betas differ? What might explain the differences in the three company's asset betas?
- Estimate the cost of equity capital for WFM, KR, and SFM.
- How does the estimated cost of equity compare to the average returns from the past 5 years?
- How are expected returns different from average past returns?
- Estimate WFM's weighted average cost of capital.
- Before Amazon's bid for WFM on June 15, 2017, WFM's stock was selling at $33.06 per share. Use your WACC estimate and the cash flow projections in Exhibit 4 to determine the terminal growth rate (g) for all years beyond 2021 that is reflected in a price of $33.06 per share.
- Is this a reasonable growth rate g?
- It is possible that WFM's cash flow projections are overly optimistic. Suppose investors believed that each of WFM's cash flow projections should be reduced by 12%. What growth rate g would be implied by a stock price of $33.06 per share?
- Using the WACC from Q3 and the growth rate estimate from Q4a, consider Exhibit 5. What percentage increase in revenue growth from 2017-2021 would justify an offer price of $42.00 per share? Alternatively, what percentage decrease in costs from 2017-2021 would justify an offer price of $42.00 per share?
- As noted in the case, Amazon's market capitalization increased by $11.34 billion on June 16, 2017. Noting that this increase was similar to the $13.7 billion purchase price, a CNBC reporter argued that, "Amazon got Whole Foods essentially for free."
- Did Amazon get Whole Foods "essentially for free"? How do you interpret the fact that Amazon's stock valuation increased by $11.34 billion on the day that its WFM acquisition was announced?
- Suppose the increase in Amazon's stock valuation (by $11.34 billion) was due to its announced acquisition of WFM. Consider question 5 again. By how much did investors think Amazon would be able to increase WFM's revenue growth and/or decrease costs?
- From this analysis, do you think Amazon overpaid for Whole Foods? Alternatively, should Whole Foods shareholders have demanded a higher price for their shares?
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