Vintage Restaurant The Vintage Restaurant is owned and operated by Karen Payne just completed its third year of operation. During those three years, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Refer to data file VINTAGE from CH8 for the value of food and beverage sales ($1,000s) for the first three years of operation. Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series. Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. How would you explain this model to Karen? Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $285,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure? Can you think of other ways to improve your forecasting model for the future? Thinking of causal effects, is there any independent variable that can be added to the model? 1. 2. 3. 4. Month Sales 242 2248 232 178 184 140 145 152 160 130 4 10 111 152 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 206 263 238 235 193 193 149 9157 161 20 21 122 130 23 167 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 230 253 255 265 205 210 160 166 174 331 153 34 35 148 173 36 174