Question
Walmart, Americas largest retailer had the markets second largest debt issuance in the U.S. in 2019, selling $16 billion in 30 year bonds. The funds
Walmart, Americas largest retailer had the markets second largest debt issuance in the U.S. in 2019, selling $16 billion in 30 year bonds. The funds were to help finance the purchase of Flipkart, Indias largest online seller. Thanks to Walmarts high credit rating, the bonds were classified by Moodys (one of the top bond rating agencies) as Aa2, or very highly rated. The bond sale was managed by a syndicate of investment banks, including Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc and Wells Fargo & Co.
In this problem, you will be provided with publicly available data on Walmart and other economic data. Certain assumptions have been made about flotation costs in order to expand the analysis. Using the given data and assumptions, answer each of the questions below. If you prefer to do the analysis in Excel, that is fine. You will need to submit your Excel file along with this word file. Both files must have your last name included in the file names (several students incorrectly submitted only the original file, with no work shown). I strongly suggest you download this file and make a copy with your name and PA2 file name. Your Excel file must be clear and easy to follow (also with your name and PA2 in the file name). Final answers must be clearly labeled, and all backup work shown. All solutions must be in the correct order.
Data for Walmart as of April 2019
Market Price | $103.18 |
# Shares (mm, or millions) | 2,897 |
Long term debt ($mm from balance sheet) | $45,396 |
Tax rate (T) | 25% |
Walmart beta () | 0.66 |
Current risk free rate (rf) | 2.59% |
Estimated market risk premium | 6.00% |
Estimated underwriter spread | 1.0% |
Estimated additional flotation costs | 0.5% |
Estimated total flotation cost (as a % of debt face value) | 1.50% |
WalMart data to use | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Dividend payout ratio (dividends paid out as a % of net income) | 38.02% | 42.89% | 45.59% | 62.04% | 91.68% |
Net income ($ millions) | $16363 | $14694 | $13643 | $9862 | 6670 |
Common equity $ (millions, book value) | $85937 | $83611 | $80535 | $80822 | 79634 |
ROE (net income/common equity or NI/CE) | 19.04% | 17.57% | 16.94% | 12.20% | 8.38% |
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
Dividend history ($/share) | $1.91 | $1.96 | $2.00 | $2.04 | $2.08 |
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Dividend estimates ($/share) |
| $2.14 | $2.05 | $2.40 | $2.48 |
Basic starting point data:
You are to calculate each of the following based on the data provided above.
1) | Value of equity (market capitalization) | |
2) | Value of long term debt (use book value) | |
3) | Weight of equity | |
4) | Weight of debt |
Show your inputs and/or calculations below (add space as necessary, make it very clear how you arrived at your final answers above)
Calculate the cost of equity:
The growth rate (assumed constant) for dividends can be calculated two different ways, 1) Calculate g using historic or projected trends in dividends per share or 2) Calculating g from ROE and reinvestment in the firm: g = ROE * (1-payout ratio). Read the following questions and clearly answer the question as asked, using the appropriate estimation method for the growth rate.
- What is the 3 year growth rate (2020-2023) of expected dividends?
Calculate and describe how you arrived at your answer (what were the inputs).
- What is the 4 year growth rate (2015-2019) of actual dividends?
Calculate and describe how you arrived at your answer (what were the inputs).
- DISCUSS: Do either of these values seem appropriate? If so, which one and why?
I expect a few sentences that discuss issues you see with using the dividend discount model in this situation. Your answer should reference what you see for the two different values you have just calculated.
Now, what about calculating g from ROE and reinvestment in the firm, where g = ROE*(1-payout ratio)? You have net income and book value of equity trends, from this, I calculated ROE (NI/Book value of common equity) and that is provided in the table above. The firms dividend payout ratio trends are also provided above.
- What are the difficulties in estimating the "constant" growth rate for Walmart using the firm's ROE and payout ratio? [g = ROE*(1-payout ratio]
I expect a discussion of specific input values and issues here.
[Discuss issues here, add more space as needed]
- Using the CAPM equation for the required cost of capital, r = rf + (market risk premium), what is the required cost of equity (re)?
Calculate and describe how you arrived at your answer (what were the inputs).
Based on the issues with using the dividend discount model to estimate g, we will proceed from here using the estimated CAPM cost of equity.
Calculate the cost of debt
The cost of debt, on a pre-tax basis, is the yield on a firm's bonds. Walmart has at least 50 long-term bonds, the weighted average yield on these bonds is 3.2%. On the other hand, a simplified cost of debt can be calculated as the interest expenses divided by two year average of book value of debt. For Walmart, the book and market value of debt is nearly identical. This estimated cost of debt is 4.49%.
For our purposes, we will take the average, and use 3.85% as the pre-tax cost of debt (preliminary)
Now that we have the average pre-tax cost of debt, we need to account for the underwriter spread. We are simplifying from flotation costs calculated for equity. The adjusted pre-tax cost of debt should be estimated rate (from above)/(1-UW spread). Estimated pre-tax cost after accounting for underwriter spread and other flotation costs (the total of 1.5%). We calculate this adjusted pre-tax cost of debt as: original pre-tax estimate/(1-flotation cost %)
- What is the adjusted pre-tax cost of debt (rd)? [show your work below]
Weighted average cost of capital
- Weighted average cost of capital =
- Be sure to show your inputs in your WACC above and be sure to adjust for taxes as appropriate.
- Discuss: Is this weighted average cost of capital a good hurdle rate to use for all new Walmart projects?
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