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Wander Drugs Inc. is about to launch a break-through drug to the market. The basic decision is whether to build a big plant (cost of
Wander Drugs Inc. is about to launch a break-through drug to the market. The basic decision is whether to build a big plant (cost of P20M) or a small plant (cost of P10M) or even whether to conduct a survey first. Should the market response to the product be good and they build a big plant, they could make P50M from the product less the P20M plant cost for a net payoff of P30M. Should the market response be low and they build a large plant, they expect to make P30M from the product less the P20M plant cost for a net payoff of P10M. Should they decide to build a small plant (cost of P10 M), they expect to make P30M from either scenario (as their production capacity can only meet that of the low market) for a net payoff of P20M from either scenario. Based of previous introduction of similar products, the estimated chance for a good market response is 60% while that of a low market response is 40%. Alternatively, they could opt to conduct a survey first (for a cost of P0.5M) to get a better read of the actual market response to the product. Should
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