Question
Warren Buffy is an enormously wealthy investor who has built his fortune through is legendary investment acumen. He currently has been offered three major investments
Warren Buffy is an enormously wealthy investor who has built his fortune through is legendary investment acumen. He currently has been offered three major investments and hw would like to choose one. The first investment would perform very well in an improving economy and only suffer a small loss in a worsening economy. The second investment would do extremely well in an improving economy but would do very badly in a worsening economy. Strangely enough, the third investment would lose some money in an improving economy but would perform well in a worsening economy.
Warren believes that there are three possible scenarios over the lives of these potential investments: an improving economy, a stable economy, and a worsening economy. He is pessimistic about where the economy is headed and so has assigned probabilities of 0.1 for an improving, 0.5 for a stable, and 0.4 for a worsening economy. He also estimates that his profits (all in millions of dollars) under these respective scenarios are those given in the following table:
Improving Economy | Stable Economy | Worsening Economy | |
Investment A | 30 | 5 | -10 |
Investment B | 40 | 10 | -30 |
Investment C | -10 | 0 | 15 |
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Which investment would Warren choose under each of the following criteria?
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Maximax
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Maximin
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Minimax Regret
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Maximizing Expected Values
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What is the maximum amount that Warren should be willing to pay to get more information about the possible scenarios for the economy?
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