Watch this video first:

https://www.ted.com/talks/peter_donnelly_how_juries_are_fooled_by_statistics?language=en

Overview: "Oxford mathematician Peter Donnelly reveals the common mistakes humans make in interpreting statistics, along with the devastating impact these errors can have on the outcome of criminal trials. Peter Donnelly is an expert in probability theory who applies statistical methods to genetic data, spurring advances in disease treatment and insight on our evolution. He's also an expert on DNA analysis and an advocate for sensible statistical analysis in the courtroom."

Although Peter Donnelly presented this at a conference in 2005, it is still relevant today.

• Question:
• Why does Donnelly start with the coin toss exercise? In what way(s) does it prepare the audience for the rest of his talk?
• Explain what led an expert witness in the Sally Clark case to offer the statistic "one in 73 million" and what was wrong with that statistic.
• Reflecting on the Sally Clark case, Donnelly comments, "So if a pediatrician had come out and said to a jury, 'I know how to build bridges. I've built one down the road. Please drive your car home over it,' they would have said, 'Well, pediatricians don't know how to build bridges. That's what engineers do.'"
• Question: What point do you think Donnelly trying to make?Can you tie that with anything in your own experiences?Explain.