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We think there are five possible outcomes next year for the launch of Lemonade Inc.'s Smoothie business. There is a 20% chance of an

 

We think there are five possible outcomes next year for the launch of Lemonade Inc.'s Smoothie business. There is a 20% chance of an explosion in activity and growth resulting in an NPV of $12,000, a 40% chance of a rapid growth resulting in an NPV of $8,000, a 25% chance of a slow recovery of activity resulting in an NPV of $800, a 10% chance that our investment break-even, and a 5% chance that the campus will remain deserted in the near future resulting in an NPV of -$6,000. What is the expected net present value of the investment?

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