Week 2 Probem 2 A. Given Month Sales (000 units) Feb. 19 25 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 20 May 20 15 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Sales 10 Aug. 20 5 Sales and Months 0 0 2 4 Month 60 B.1 Nave Forecast Sept single previous value = B.2 five month moving average MA5 = Sum of last five months sales/number of months, round to two decimal points = 00 8 Sales (000 units) -Linear (Sales (000 units)) B.2 five month moving average MA5 = Sum of last five months sales/number of months, round to two decimal points = B.3 weight weighted using .60 for August .30 for July, and .10 for June (weight of each month)(same month's sale) +(weight of next month)(next month)+ weight of next month)(next month) = round to two decimal points = B.4 exponenial smothing Smoothing constant = .20 March forecast 19 Month Forecast= F(old) + .20[Actua 1 - F(old) A. Given Sales (000 April 18.8 19 -0.2.20[18-19] Month units) .20[15- May 18.04 18.8 -0.76 Feb. 19 18.8 June July August + + + Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 September + Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 B.5 Linear B.5 Linear trend question t(months) Y (sales) 1 19 2 18 3 4 5 6 7 28 tY Y = a + bx n= number of months b= nty-tY/nt - (t) a=Y-b>t Sept =8 what would be my sale 19 1 A. Given Sales (000 Month units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 total Aug. 20 132 Slope of the line Value of y when x=0 Y=a+b8 Which method seems least appropriate? Why? What does the use of the term "sales" rather than "demand" presume?