Weldtive sample and Tully reflect what's being measured. ensure Exercise 8.1 For each of the fa sample, and relev weak and (3) if it not representative following enumerative inductions, (1) identify the target group, levant property; (2) indicate whether the argument is strong or it's weak, say whether the problem is a sample that's too small, ative, or both. Assume that the information provided in the prem- of each argument is true. * 1. Two-thirds of choice" the abon 2. Most pecnie of the adults in New York City identify themselves as "pro- the abortion debate. And almost 70 percent of adults in San Co. This makes the situation perfectly clear: A large majority of the people in this country are pro-choice. last peche are fed up with celebrities who get on their soapbox and their litical opinions. When people on the street have been asked W TV reporters how they feel about this issue, they almost always say hat they wish celebrities would keep their opinions to themselves. Doctors used to think that anti-arrhythmic drugs were the cure for irregular heartbeats. They overprescribed these drugs and fifty thousand patients died. Doctors used to believe that the cure for ulcers was a bland diet, but that turned out to be wrong too. Every new treatment we see these days sounds great. But history tells us that they will all turn out to be worthless. 4. I've asked at least a dozen first-year students at this university whether the United States should go to war with "terrorist" countries, and they all have said no. So most of the students at this university are against such a militant policy. 5. A randomized Gallup poll of Berkeley students shows that 90 percent of them are in favor of immigration reform. Thus, we can safely say that Americans definitely want immigration reform. Exercise 8.2 For each of the enumerative inductions in Exercise 8.1, indicate whether the ment is strong or weak. If it's strong, explain how the sample could be modif to make the argument weak. If it's weak, explain how the sample could be mode fied to make the argument strong. Keep the modifications as realistic as possible Answers are supplied for 1, 4, 8, and 12. Exercise 8.3 For each of the following opinion polls, (1) determine whether the poll results! offer strong support for the pollster's conclusion, and, if they don't, (2) specify the source of the problem (sample too small, unrepresentative sample, or nonran- dom sampling). Assume that the conducting of each survey is free of technical errors such as mistakes in data processing or improper polling interviews. 1. An Internet site featuring national and world news asks visitors to par- ticipate in the site's "instant daily poll" of hot topics The current polling question is: "Should the words 'under God' be stricken from the Pledge of Allegiance if its recitation is required of public school children?" Twelve thousand people visit the site on the day that the poll is taken. Of those, seven thousand answer no to the question. The site concludes that 58 percent of Americans oppose modifying the Pledge. 2. Anita conducts a survey to determine if Americans are willing to support the arts by contributing money directly to local theater groups. One nig she and her assistants interview five hundred people who are attending! a performance of a musical at the city's biggest theater. To help ensure random selection, they purposely select every other patron they encour ter for interviewing. There is only one interview question: "Are you willing to support the arts by giving money to local theater groups! Ninety-four percent of the interviewees answer yes. Anita later reports 279 Inductive Reasoning CHAPTER 8 vity of Americans are willing to support the arts by that a large majority of Am ving money to local theater groups. 1. A prominent sociologist women aged twenty-five to fortv whether heterosexual partners' sexual perform her friends who belong to her female colleagues at her asking the key question. She logist wants to determine the sexual attitudes of five to forty-five. The main question to be explored is terosexual women in this age group feel satisfied with their al performance. The sociologist interviews two hundred of who belong to the target group. She also asks two hundred of colleagues at her college to complete and return a survey y question. She gets 78 completed surveys back from women group. She finds that 75 percent of all the interviewees say vare not satisfied with their partners' performance. She con- as that most heterosexual women aged twenty-five to forty-five aren't appy with the sexual performance of their partners. national polling organization surveys fifteen hundred obstetrician- necologists chosen randomly from a national registry of this medical ecialty. The survey question is whether obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women. Ninety-eight percent of those surveyed say yes. The pollsters conclude that almost all physicians think that obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women & A national women's magazine publishes a questionnaire on sexual ha- rassment in the workplace. Respondents are asked to complete the ques- tionnaire and mail it in to the magazine. The magazine receives over twenty thousand completed questionnaires in the mail. Sixty-two percent of the respondents say that they've been sexually harassed at work. The magazine reports that most women have been sexually harassed at work. Weldtive sample and Tully reflect what's being measured. ensure Exercise 8.1 For each of the fa sample, and relev weak and (3) if it not representative following enumerative inductions, (1) identify the target group, levant property; (2) indicate whether the argument is strong or it's weak, say whether the problem is a sample that's too small, ative, or both. Assume that the information provided in the prem- of each argument is true. * 1. Two-thirds of choice" the abon 2. Most pecnie of the adults in New York City identify themselves as "pro- the abortion debate. And almost 70 percent of adults in San Co. This makes the situation perfectly clear: A large majority of the people in this country are pro-choice. last peche are fed up with celebrities who get on their soapbox and their litical opinions. When people on the street have been asked W TV reporters how they feel about this issue, they almost always say hat they wish celebrities would keep their opinions to themselves. Doctors used to think that anti-arrhythmic drugs were the cure for irregular heartbeats. They overprescribed these drugs and fifty thousand patients died. Doctors used to believe that the cure for ulcers was a bland diet, but that turned out to be wrong too. Every new treatment we see these days sounds great. But history tells us that they will all turn out to be worthless. 4. I've asked at least a dozen first-year students at this university whether the United States should go to war with "terrorist" countries, and they all have said no. So most of the students at this university are against such a militant policy. 5. A randomized Gallup poll of Berkeley students shows that 90 percent of them are in favor of immigration reform. Thus, we can safely say that Americans definitely want immigration reform. Exercise 8.2 For each of the enumerative inductions in Exercise 8.1, indicate whether the ment is strong or weak. If it's strong, explain how the sample could be modif to make the argument weak. If it's weak, explain how the sample could be mode fied to make the argument strong. Keep the modifications as realistic as possible Answers are supplied for 1, 4, 8, and 12. Exercise 8.3 For each of the following opinion polls, (1) determine whether the poll results! offer strong support for the pollster's conclusion, and, if they don't, (2) specify the source of the problem (sample too small, unrepresentative sample, or nonran- dom sampling). Assume that the conducting of each survey is free of technical errors such as mistakes in data processing or improper polling interviews. 1. An Internet site featuring national and world news asks visitors to par- ticipate in the site's "instant daily poll" of hot topics The current polling question is: "Should the words 'under God' be stricken from the Pledge of Allegiance if its recitation is required of public school children?" Twelve thousand people visit the site on the day that the poll is taken. Of those, seven thousand answer no to the question. The site concludes that 58 percent of Americans oppose modifying the Pledge. 2. Anita conducts a survey to determine if Americans are willing to support the arts by contributing money directly to local theater groups. One nig she and her assistants interview five hundred people who are attending! a performance of a musical at the city's biggest theater. To help ensure random selection, they purposely select every other patron they encour ter for interviewing. There is only one interview question: "Are you willing to support the arts by giving money to local theater groups! Ninety-four percent of the interviewees answer yes. Anita later reports 279 Inductive Reasoning CHAPTER 8 vity of Americans are willing to support the arts by that a large majority of Am ving money to local theater groups. 1. A prominent sociologist women aged twenty-five to fortv whether heterosexual partners' sexual perform her friends who belong to her female colleagues at her asking the key question. She logist wants to determine the sexual attitudes of five to forty-five. The main question to be explored is terosexual women in this age group feel satisfied with their al performance. The sociologist interviews two hundred of who belong to the target group. She also asks two hundred of colleagues at her college to complete and return a survey y question. She gets 78 completed surveys back from women group. She finds that 75 percent of all the interviewees say vare not satisfied with their partners' performance. She con- as that most heterosexual women aged twenty-five to forty-five aren't appy with the sexual performance of their partners. national polling organization surveys fifteen hundred obstetrician- necologists chosen randomly from a national registry of this medical ecialty. The survey question is whether obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women. Ninety-eight percent of those surveyed say yes. The pollsters conclude that almost all physicians think that obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women & A national women's magazine publishes a questionnaire on sexual ha- rassment in the workplace. Respondents are asked to complete the ques- tionnaire and mail it in to the magazine. The magazine receives over twenty thousand completed questionnaires in the mail. Sixty-two percent of the respondents say that they've been sexually harassed at work. The magazine reports that most women have been sexually harassed at work