What is a "Black Swan Event"? A natural disaster event of some kind which can kill a large number of people in a small geographic area Any event (for example, a natural disaster of some kind) is, which a has very low probability of taking place (i.e., it is outside the realm of "regular expectation". A natural disaster event of some kind which is likely to happen during the nighttime Any event (for example, a natural disaster of some kind) is, which has a very high probability of taking place in the near future