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What is the average causal effect of the death of a leader on the polity scores of a country? (Please write a full sentence answering

What is the average causal effect of the death of a leader on the polity scores of a country? (Please write a full sentence answering the question, including the assumption, why the assumption might be reasonable, the treatment, the outcome, as well as the direction, size, and unit of measurement of the average treatment effect) (10 points)

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