What is the probability of each state?

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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), since 1945 to 2009 (extremes included) there has been approximately 11 business cycles. Assume that on average contractions (c) last 10.24 months while expansions last 53.76 months and define normal times (n) as 60% of the expansion months, characterizing the residual months as booms (b). Furthermore, suppose the expected return on the US market conditional on contractions to be -17%, i.e. m(c) = -0.17, during normal times to be 1%, and overall to be 8%. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), since 1945 to 2009 (extremes included) there has been approximately 11 business cycles. Assume that on average contractions (c) last 10.24 months while expansions last 53.76 months and define normal times (n) as 60% of the expansion months, characterizing the residual months as booms (b). Furthermore, suppose the expected return on the US market conditional on contractions to be -17%, i.e. m(c) = -0.17, during normal times to be 1%, and overall to be 8%