What is the value of the abandonment option in problem 14-4 using the Black Scholes Model for a put option? For the annualized variance, use the midpoint between the Direct and Indirect variance estimates. Use a risk-free rate of 6%. How does this value compare to the decision tree outcome
the tax will be imposed, how much would the company pay today for the 14-4 Real Options: Decision-Tree Analysis Utah Enterprises is considering buying a vacant lot that sells for $1.2 million If the property is purchased, the company's plan is to spend another $5 million today (t =0) to build a hotel on the property. The after-tax cash flows from the year's legislative session. If the tax is imposed, the hotel is expected to produce scenario it would make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million Given that cash flows are discounted at 12% and that there's a 50-50 chance hotel will depend critically on whether the state imposes a tourism tax in this after-tax cash inflows of $600,000 at the end of each of the next 15 years versus $1,200,000 if the tax is not imposed. The project has a 12% cost or capital. Assume at the outset that the company does not have the option to delay the project. Use decision-tree analysis to answer the following questions a. What is the project's expected NPV if the tax is imposed? b. What is the project's expected NPV if the tax is not imposed? c. Given that there is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, what is the project's expected NPV if the company proceeds with it today? d. Although the company does not have an option to delay construction, it does have the option to abandon the project 1 year from now if the tax is imposed. If it abandons the project, it would sell the the complete property 1 year from now at an expected price of $6 million. Once the project is aban- doned, the company would no longer receive any cash inflows from it. If all cash flows are discounted at 12%, would the existence of this abandonment option affect the company's decision to proceed with the project today? e. Assume there is no option to abandon or delay the project but that the com- pany has an option to purchase an adjacent property in 1 year at a price of $1.5 million. If the tourism tax is imposed, then the net present value of developing this property (as of t = 1) is only $300,000 (so it make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million). However, if the is not imposed then the net present value of the future opportunities from developing the property would be $4 million (as oft wouldn't 1). Thus, under this option to purchase this property 1 year from now for $1.5 million? the tax will be imposed, how much would the company pay today for the 14-4 Real Options: Decision-Tree Analysis Utah Enterprises is considering buying a vacant lot that sells for $1.2 million If the property is purchased, the company's plan is to spend another $5 million today (t =0) to build a hotel on the property. The after-tax cash flows from the year's legislative session. If the tax is imposed, the hotel is expected to produce scenario it would make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million Given that cash flows are discounted at 12% and that there's a 50-50 chance hotel will depend critically on whether the state imposes a tourism tax in this after-tax cash inflows of $600,000 at the end of each of the next 15 years versus $1,200,000 if the tax is not imposed. The project has a 12% cost or capital. Assume at the outset that the company does not have the option to delay the project. Use decision-tree analysis to answer the following questions a. What is the project's expected NPV if the tax is imposed? b. What is the project's expected NPV if the tax is not imposed? c. Given that there is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, what is the project's expected NPV if the company proceeds with it today? d. Although the company does not have an option to delay construction, it does have the option to abandon the project 1 year from now if the tax is imposed. If it abandons the project, it would sell the the complete property 1 year from now at an expected price of $6 million. Once the project is aban- doned, the company would no longer receive any cash inflows from it. If all cash flows are discounted at 12%, would the existence of this abandonment option affect the company's decision to proceed with the project today? e. Assume there is no option to abandon or delay the project but that the com- pany has an option to purchase an adjacent property in 1 year at a price of $1.5 million. If the tourism tax is imposed, then the net present value of developing this property (as of t = 1) is only $300,000 (so it make sense to purchase the property for $1.5 million). However, if the is not imposed then the net present value of the future opportunities from developing the property would be $4 million (as oft wouldn't 1). Thus, under this option to purchase this property 1 year from now for $1.5 million
