What was the relationship between economic surprises and the 6-month percentage change in the S&P 500 from 2009 through the end of 2012? There does not appear to be any correlation between economic surprises and the return on the S&P 500. When economic surprises were positive, the S&P 500 followed with a rally and when economic surprises were negative, the S&P 500 followed with a decline. When economic surprises were positive, the S&P 500 followed with a decline and when economic surprises were negative, the S&P 500 followed with a rally.