what's a good title for this article: Inflation Article CPI Index: 2019 January = 100 The Trend is Our Friend "I'm not worried about [inflation]. When it comes to inflation, the trend is our friend. The trend is the underlying momentum of an economic indicator, and that trend has been quite supportive and consistent in terms of easing prices." - Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and a top adviser to Joe Biden In a political climate dominated by culture wars, political polarization over issues such as immigration and abortion isn't surprising. What is unusual is the political disconnect over the state of the economy. The disparity in Americans' perceptions of the economy hinges on their interpretation of economic data and the time period they choose for analysis. The Biden administration has lauded their economic strategy, pointing to job growth and have recently championed lower quarterly inflation numbers. Of course, Americans don't develop their perceptions of the economy through annualizing quarterly data, or comparing the percentage change in the CPI this year versus last year. Americans develop their perceptions of inflation through the cost of everyday purchases. Politicians won't be rewarded for a lower annual inflation rate this year compared to last year so long as the price of goods is still substantially higher than was just two or three years ago. In order to understand how Americans internalize inflation, we have to broaden our time horizon and focus on specific goods that affect cost of living. Food Prices Of all goods that have been hit hard by inflation, perhaps none is as significant to Americans as the cost of food and groceries. According to a Pew Research poll conducted in January of 2024, 72% of Americans indicated that they were "very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods." Similar to gas, food inflation is easily internalized by consumer through their frequent groceries trips, and its inelastic demand forces consumers to shoulder the burden. Food is a basic necessity, and consumers can't significantly alter their food consumption patterns depending on the price. Additionally, food has been particularly susceptible to inflation. Since January of 2019, the price of food has grown at a higher rate, 26.6%, than the price of all goods, 22.6%. Biden advisors and media defenders have touted the recent drop in egg prices to demonstrate the waning effects on food inflation. In the last 12 months, the price of eggs has decreased by 47%, but, apart from being an outlier in food prices, it gets at an important question regarding inflationary time horizons. Even with this recent drop in prices, the price of eggs has increased by over 72% since January of 2021. While consumers certainly notice prices being half of what they were a year prior, if the price is still 72% higher than it was three years earlier, it is difficult to convince Americans that the economy is improving with such a recent reference point. In order to understand how consumers might internalize inflation, we have to consider a longer time period. From 2014 to 2019, food costs increased by 7.6%, annualizing to a 1.47% increase per year. From 2019 to 2024 food costs increased by 26.6%, annualizing to a 4.8% increase per year. We can break this down even further by considering three of the most common food items purchased by Americans: chicken, beef, and bread. In the last five years, the price of chicken has increased by 33.4%, beef by 32.2%, and bread by 35.6%. Much of these inflationary trends have really accelerated in the two to three years, with chicken and beef increasing by over 25% in the last three years, and bread increasing by 30% in just the last two years. Ignoring time horizons and only focusing on the past 12 months, it is difficult to argue that the state of inflation is significantly improving, if at all. While chicken prices decreased by 5.3% in t