When your friend is busy, there is a 5/11 chance that they will ignore a text (i.e., on average, they ignore 5 out of every 11 texts). In contrast, during their "alone time", there is 10/11 chance that they will ignore a text (i.e., on average, they ignore 10 out of every 11 texts). In other words, they are much more likely to ignore texts during their "alone time" than when they are busy. For this question, assume that it is easy to tell whether they are going to reply to a text (let's say they either reply within 2 minutes or not at all). 2.1. [5 points] You sent your friend a text 5 minutes ago, and haven't heard back, so you know they are not going to reply (it's been more than 2 minutes). Is it more likely that they ignored the text because they were busy or because they want to be left alone? How many times is one of these hypotheses more likely than the other? Is your belief aligned more with the prior or the likelihood? Show your work