Which of the following is not a part of the index of lagging economic indicators?

Multiple Choice

• Outstanding commercial loans

• Index of unit labor costs

• None of the options are correct.

• Average prime rate of interest

• Ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income

Which of the following advice is not particularly useful in forecasting the cyclical component of a time series?

Multiple Choice

• All of the options are correct.

• Review the past behavior of the cyclical factor series.

• Avoid subjective forecasts of cycle factors.

• Use time-series smoothing when you expect a trend to continue into the forecast horizon.

• Review the results of several forecasting methods.

A seasonal index number of .80 for quarter one in a time series decomposition model of an automobile parts manufacturer suggests

rev: 11_07_2018_QC_CS-146812

Multiple Choice

• quarter one sales are 1.80% below the norm.

• quarter one sales are 80% below the norm.

• quarter one sales are 20% below the norm.

• quarter one sales are 80% above the norm.

If business cycles were pure cycles, they

Multiple Choice

• All of the options are correct.

• would be easy to forecast.

• would have constant amplitude.

• would have predictable trend reversals.

• would have constant periodicity.

A researcher mistakenly uses deseasonalized data in calculating the seasonal factors. If she found apparent seasonal behavior, this is best attributed to

Multiple Choice

• seasonality.

• the business cycle.

• None of the options are correct.

• trend.

• random noise.

The following specific seasonal factors were estimated for the month of October:

65.4

76.8

66.9

72.6

70.0

If the adjustment is 0.98 and the modified mean is used, and if the expected trend for October is $800, what is the seasonally adjusted forecast?

Multiple Choice

• $561.00

• $551.20

• $570.00

• $1,168.8

• None of the options are correct.