1. Which of the following methods would be suitable for forecasting this series if applied to the raw data?

• Nave forecasts
• Moving average
• Simple exponential smoothing
• Double exponential smoothing
• Holt-Winter's exponential smoothing

1. Apply a moving average with window span w = 4 to the data. Use all but the last year as the training period.
2. Use The MA(4) model to forecast appliance sales in Q1-1990.
3. Use the MA(4) model to forecast appliance sales in Q1-1991.
4. Is the Q1-1990 forecast most likely to underestimate, overestimate, or accurately estimate the actual sales for Q1-1990? Explain.