While the obvious words to describe Canada's economy would be diverse and resource dependent, I would describe the Canadian economy right now as fragile. There are positive trends in manufacturing markets including big increases in transportation and chemical manufacturing along with many new investments in facilities in Southern Ontario. This is good for the economy because they are showing a long-term commitment and will create jobs in markets that are currently in demand. Our current international trade is operating in a surplus as well, which is a positive use of our natural resources to create local jobs.

The current challenges are around building permits and unemployment. While the indicators above show that new opportunities are coming, it isn't showing in the statistics yet. The current unemployment rate is at 6.1% and has declined for 6 consecutive months settling down 1% YOY. Many of these jobs are in the retail and service sectors affecting younger demographics the hardest.The building permit piece is slightly conflicting at first glance. When you look at face value, it appears that it has been a steady increase in permits over the past 36 months (about 3 years). However, when you look at the fact that CPI maxed out at 8.1% over one of the most extensivecost increase periods in our history, the actual amount of permits has been flat or reduced over this period, but the cost has increased.

When I look at the data above and take into consideration the inflationary environment we have been in over the past few years, our GDP has grown by 3.2%. CPI over that same time frame has averaged approximately 5.2%. Statistically, this is a reduction in GDP over the past 24 months. The consumer confidence index, while it has peaks and valleys, is trending about 4 points lower than the 14 year average. While I stand by my fragile statement for right now, the bright spot is the indicators and models for the future with CCI, CPI and unemployment are all predicting to be stronger in 2025.

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