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will turn blue. Set your number of trials to 10,000. Then start your simulation, go to the Cumulative Frequency view, and find the probability that
will turn blue. Set your number of trials to 10,000. Then start your simulation, go to the Cumulative Frequency view, and find the probability that the full schedule (value of cell K11) is less than 34 weeks. Run the simulation two more times (with 10,000 trials) and find the same probability again. Take the average of your three probabilities and use this average when answering Question 46 in the final exam quiz. Finally, please answer the following in the response area provided in Question 47 in the final exam quiz. Your answers for Part 1 and Part 2 should have a surprisingly (even shockingly!) high difference (or else you likely made some data entry errors). If you were the project manager, which of the two numbers would you report and why? In practice, most project managers only simulate the critical path (and PM textbooks and publications recommend this too). Having gone through these two simulations, do you think that simulating only the critical path is a good idea? Why or why not? a. How would you explain why there was such a huge difference between the two probabilities in simple English and using just a bit of common-sense math to your team, sponsor, or executives? b. For a very large project with several hundreds or thousands of activities, it may be difficult to simulate the entire schedule (as we did in Part 2), so you may be forced to simulate only the critical or near-critical paths. Having completed this exercise, if you were managing such a large project, what other paths (besides the critical and near-critical paths) might you identify for simulation, and why? C. What broad realizations have you gained from this lab assignment about the mindset, maturity, and judgment that a good project manager should have, and the what-if questions that a good project manager constantly needs to ask the project team and other stakeholders? d. Please share constructive feedback and your honest impressions of this final exam in terms of comprehensiveness, assessing and adding value to your course learning, level of difficulty, time required to complete, etc. Screenshot
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