with digital payment and legal processing in the cloud now International firms operate seamlessly across national circumventing the need for outsourcing to low cost locations. borders, and it is vital that they do not become the victims As customers increasingly demand individualized products, of increasingly protectionist politics. This would threaten which reflect their personal identity, from garments to investment and jobs and gives consumers less choice. To the cars to medicines, trade patterns will shift to sourcing in extent that multinational companies are able to spread best locations that respond to this demand. The pandemic has practice and raise global standards, including by improving highlighted the need to diversify sourcing, and this will the welfare of theirworkers and paying taxes, they offer a further encourage cross-border flows from a widening range means to create higher quality jobs and shared prosperity. of countries. Globalization spreads opportunities but also risks. These The restructuring of trade to meet new demands and reflect need to be more effectively managed to ensure that there is new production methods, as well as risk management con- not a backlash and to promote our shared prosperity. Turning cerns, will not reverse globalization-it will transform it. The our back on globalization is not the answer. There is no wall one area that the pandemic will reduce global flows is with high enough to keep out climate change, pandemics, nuclear respect to business travel as the efficiency, cost and carbon Armageddon or any of the other grave threats we face. But saving benefits of remote meetings mean that digital flows what high walls do keep out is the investments, trade, people, replace business travel. Foreign travel for leisure and tour- technologies and most importantly, the building blocks of ism will however rebound, as authentic experiences become cooperation that are urgently needed to address the threats a more significant part of consumer spending as incomes and create higher growth and jobs. What Covid-19 has taught increase, not least in Asia us is that we need to redouble our efforts to create a more inclusive, sustainable and healthy world where globaliza- Globalization in the future will increasingly be centered on tion serves to overcome risks and social divides and is a tool East Asia, which accounts for half of the world's population for achieving shared and sustainable prosperity for all of and is the fastest growing economic region. A rapid and humanity. sustained recovery of this region from the Covid-19 crisis will reinforce its rising economic and political power. lan Goldin is Professor of The changing economic and political landscape has led to a Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, and transitional period in which there is no effective global lead- founding Director of the Oxford ership. Global institutions are being starved of the resources, Martin School. Previously he legitimacy, and mandates for reform that they urgently was Vice President of the World require. The lack of political will to manage global threats Bank and the Group's Director and build a more inclusive world is the greatest challenge of Policy, after serving as Chief facing globalization. In this respect, there is too little global- Executive of the Development Bank of Southern ization, not too much. Africa and Economic Advisor to President Nelson Mandela. He has published 22 books, including This increases the importance of companies, cities, and Terra Incognito: 1 00 Maps to Survive the Next communities cooperating with each otherto build trust and 1 00 Years (co-authored with Robert Muggah). global alliances and improve outcomes.Q3. How would you assess the position of Prof. Ian Goldin on the Future of Globalization in the DHL Report? Do you agree/disagree with him? How? Do you see any bright/ positive side of Globalization? If yes, what are they? THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION By lan Goldin, Professor of Globalization, Oxford University Globalization-the movement across national borders of flows and the spread of pandemics. Meanwhile, the success of goods, services, people and, most importantly, ideas, has globalization has in itself generated new risks. Access to elec- been the most positive force in the history of humanity, tricity and transport has led to soaring carbon emissions and bringing more progress, more quickly, to more people than accelerated climate change. Increased use of antibiotics has anything preceding it. Globalization accelerated in the late improved health outcomes but has also created a new threat 1980s and early 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet bloc, of antibiotic resistance. Increasing internet connectivity has the opening up of China, the Maastricht Treaty which accel- helped overcome the digital divide but also led to new threats erated the integration of Europe, and NAFTA which similarly posed by fake news and the dark web. reduced trade barriers in North America, while the Uruguay Round halved tariffs globally. At the same time, the develop- Covid-19 will not kill globalization, on the contrary it will ment of the World Wide Web ushered in the digital age. accelerate its growth and transformation. Some aspects, such as scientific collaboration and digital connectivity have The result has been that over the past three decades aver- already increased dramatically since the pandemic began. age per capita incomes globally have doubled, 1.3 billion The pandemic will also lead to a sharp increase in cross- people have escaped desperate poverty, average life expec- border flows of capital, as a record number of countries seek tancy globally has increased by about 10 years, and over financial support from international institutions and credi- 50 countries have become democratic. And yet, globaliza- tors. Private cross-border financal flows will also increase as tion appears more unpopular than ever. The reason is the the sharp repricing of different sectors and countries offers butterfly defect of globalization as the hyper connectivity of new opportunities for mergers and acquisitions. increasingly complex systems leads to the spreading of new forms of risk as well as benefits. Lockdowns have spurred international sourcing of goods and services which are delivered to homes, not least fitness, Major financial centers generate financial opportunities, but baking and gardening products. Automation and robotics in networks of financial centers are also the source of financial the future is likely to shift comparative advantage away from contagion. Cyber systems allow for our digital economy, but low-cost, low-skilled locations to closer to major markets, also are the source of cyber viruses. And major airport hubs where skills and machines are available. It is not only facilitate travel and logistics, but also bring the danger of illicit manufacturing which is being automated, services are too