Question
With the above procedures, we have data in the Excel file Data_MomContrarian.xlsx. The data sample is monthly from 1931.01-2011.12. The variable definition for each column
With the above procedures, we have data in the Excel file "Data_MomContrarian.xlsx". The data sample is monthly from 1931.01-2011.12. The variable definition for each column is described in the following: Column A: Date Column B-K: Monthly returns for Momentum Portfolios, with Column K being the intermediate-term past winners, and Column B being the intermediate-term past losers. Therefore, if you keep buying past winners using past 12-2 month returns, you will generate a time series returns of Column K. Column L-U: Monthly returns for Long-term Contrarian Portfolios, with Column U being the longterm past winners, and Column L being the long-term past losers. Therefore, if you keep buying long-term past winners, you will generate a return time series of Column U. Column V: Time series of market excess return. Column W: Risk-free rate. (Note in CAPM you are regressing "Excess Returns" of a portfolio or stock on the excess return of the market, so you need subtract risk-free rate from the portfolio returns in Column B-U in estimating CAPM. However, Column V is already excess return).
- What are the mean, standard deviation and Sharpe ratio of the 10 momentum portfolio returns? How about 10 Contrarian portfolios? Are there any monotonic patterns in these portfolio returns?
- Momentum strategy is taking a long position in intermediate-term winner portfolio (Column K) and short position in intermediate-term loser portfolio (Column B), therefore, the strategy return is calculated as the difference between Column K and Column B. What is the average return of momentum strategy? How about standard deviation and Sharpe Ratio? Does momentum strategy offer a higher Sharpe ratio than the market portfolio?
- Repeat the question 2 for long-term contrarian strategy, where you are taking a long position in long-term losers (Column L) and a short position in long-term winners (Column U). What are the average return, standard deviation and Sharpe Ratio of the 10 contrarian portfolios and the contrarian strategy portfolio (Column L-Column U)?
- What is the correlation between the returns of momentum strategy and long-term contrarian strategy?
- Now we take a look at the CAPM performance. For each of the 10 momentum portfolio, calculate the alpha and market beta. (Check the slides in Chapter 6 regarding how you can calculate beta. You may need correlation coefficient function in excel) Do you find a pattern in market beta? Does winner portfolio have a higher market beta than loser portfolio? Can CAPM successfully capture the momentum portfolio returns? How about the abnormal return (alpha) of the momentum strategy return (Column K-Column B)? Is it bigger or smaller than the average return of momentum strategy?
- Repeat the question 5 for long-term contrarian strategy
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