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Without using Python just excel formulas please. Can you also show formulas used. Trying to understand Problem 4: You are game show contestant and have
Without using Python just excel formulas please. Can you also show formulas used. Trying to understand
Problem 4: You are game show contestant and have won your choice of two prizes (A or B): | ||||||||||||||
A: Choose prize A and receive $1,000 | ||||||||||||||
B: If you choose prize B, I will flip a (fair) coin and that determines your award: | ||||||||||||||
Heads (with probability 0.5) you recieve $3,500 | ||||||||||||||
Tails (with probability 0.5) you must pay me $1,000. That is, you receive -$1,000 | ||||||||||||||
1) What is the expected payoff of choice for: | ||||||||||||||
A: | ||||||||||||||
B: | ||||||||||||||
2) Which prize do you choose? | ||||||||||||||
why? | ||||||||||||||
3) Let's further analyze choice B. Pretend (or maybe you don't have to pretend.) that you didn't know how to calculate the answer to part 1. Create a Monte Carlo simulation (below) with 4000 trials to determine: | ||||||||||||||
--an estimate for the expected payoff | ||||||||||||||
--an estimate for the standard deviation of this payoff | ||||||||||||||
--what is the 99% confidence interval for your estimate of the expected payoff? (NOTE: This is not the 95% level that I usually ask for!) |
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