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Woodfield Toys China Ltd plans to build a manufacturing plant in Dongguan to distribute its alligator plushies in the market but cannot decide on the
Woodfield Toys China Ltd plans to build a manufacturing plant in Dongguan to distribute its alligator plushies in the market but cannot decide on the capacity for the plant. Capacities of 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000 and 6000 units are being taken into consideration. To build a unit of plant capacity, the company has to incur an annual unit cost of $800 that can be divided equally for the next 4 years. There is also a fixed maintenance cost of $7 per unit capacity per year for keeping the capacity. It is expected that demand for the alligator plushies in the market would be normally distributed, with a mean of 1600 and standard deviation of 6000. It is also expected that the demand for alligator plushies in one year will not affect the demand for the next year. Each alligator plushie has a selling price of $49 with a production price of $13. The profits generated are discounted at 5% annual interest. It is given that Woodfield Toys China Ltd would not keep inventory from one year to another and are only making plans for the next 4 years. Q1. Using excel, construct a Monte Carlo Simulation Model to find out the net present value for the above mentioned different potential manufacturing plant capacity. Find out the optimal capacity for the manufacturing plant, based on the mean net present value. Provide relevant screenshots for all excel settings and formulations used to arrive at the answer. Q2. Using the result and output chart from question 1, find the value of the net present value that has 9% chance that the actual net present value will exceed it. Provide relevant screenshots for all excel settings and formulations used to arrive at the answer. Q3. Given that the company wants to avoid risk (to shy away from a capacity with much variability in its net present value), would the optimal capacity in question 1 change
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