Answered step by step
Verified Expert Solution
Question
1 Approved Answer
Would you be able to read this case and answer these assignment questions for me as soon as possible, preferably in the next two hours.
Would you be able to read this case and answer these assignment questions for me as soon as possible, preferably in the next two hours. Please. I will be willing to tip extra. There are 8 questions that are highlighted at the end.
Thailand in May and June of 1997 May 20, 1998 On May 24, 1997, one of the lead articles in the London Economist was entitled: \"The fall of Thailand?\" with a subtitle: \"Thailand's economy may be in a mess, but it is too soon to write off its or East Asia'sgrowth prospects.\" Thailand's economic performance, like that of other Asian countries, had been stellar through the preceding six years (see Exhibits 1 through 7). On May 15 and 16 of 1997, there had been a run on the baht, Thailand's currency, requiring the Thai central bank to spend some $10 billion in a single day to defend its currency. According to The Economist: \"For 13 years the central bank's top priority has been to hold the baht stable against a basket of currencies dominated by the dollar. That policy helped make Thailand one of the world's fastestgrowing economies.\" i \"The country's real problem is not the value of its currency but the rigidity of its exchange rate regime. Pegging the rate leaves the Bank of Thailand with little power to use interest rates to steer the economy. The government's refusal to allow the baht to rise in the early 1990s, when foreign capital flooded into the country, resulted in a big monetary expansion which stoked up domestic demand and encouraged investment in marginal projects. To regain domestic monetary control, Thailand must allow the baht to float within a wider band.\" ii To defend the baht, the Bank of Thailand \"introduced informal exchange controls, telling Thai banks not to lend baht to foreign speculators. This had the effect of creating split markets for the baht, where different exchange rates have been quoted on and offshore. The BOT has gloated gleefully over the losses it rd claims this has caused foreign banks and speculators. On June 23 , a planted story in the Thai press purported to detail the bet placed against the baht by a hedge fund controlled by George Soros, speculator extraordinary. It quoted iii sources who said the BOT was \"out to destroy him.\" (A Soros spokesman has congratulated the Bank of Thailand: \"They kicked our butt.\") iv \"Dealers believe that its cash reserves of foreign exchange, $38 billion at the end of April, still look ample. But the true picture is less encouraging. The Bank of Thailand's intervention has been directed at the forward market, promising to buy baht in three, six, nine or 12 months' time. That means that, while it may have plenty of reserves in its vaults at the moment, much of those are committed to be sold over the next year. Its 'net' reserves, taking those forward commitments into account, have dwindled dangerously.\" v The rapid economic growth of the Thai economy was threatened. According to The Economist, \"After growing at around 8% annually for the past decade, Thailand is unlikely to exceed 5% growth this yearand that relies on avoiding the Mexican wave of deflationary disaster that could follow an abrupt forced devaluation.\" vi \"The fact that growth rates of 5% are viewed as 'poor' only shows how high regional standards have become. In future, growth will be harder. As East Asian countries catch up with the rich world's technological leaders, they can hardly expect the sort of growth achieved during their years of economic takeoff. But if countries correct their structural weaknesses and maintain the policies which allowed their economic miracles to happennamely high saving, open economies, flexible labor markets and good educationthey should still manage growth at 57% over the next decadeslower than the 8% achieved over the past couple of decades, but still more than double the rate of growth in rich economies.\" vii However, \"some economists have argued that the East Asian countries' spectacular growth has mainly been a result of massive increases in inputs of labor and investment, rather than gains in efficiency. This, the argument goes, cannot last forever, and growth rates, which have averaged 79% annually for years, are destined to slow.\" viii The Economist cited \"overcapacity in industries from electronics to petrochemicals because of overinvestment encouraged by lax monetary ix policies.\" In addition, \"Footloose, lowcost assembly businesses like clothing and shoes are moving on to cheaper pastures. Indonesia and the Philippines are lower down the ladder, with lowercost workers. Malaysia is already higher up, x with a larger electronics industry.\" \"Exports, whose growth had led a decade long boom, have failed to expand since the start of 1996. The inefficiency of Thailand's laborintensive industries, combined with the overvalued baht, has xi been bad for business.\" Finally, one \"big reason for [Thailand's] growth was the relative weakness of the dollar and the strength of the yen. Japanese investment poured in, and cheap exports poured out. Since the dollar strengthened last year, life has not been so easy.\" xii \"Due to the slowing economy, the government is heading for its first budget deficit in more than ten years. The size of the projected shortfall (20 billion baht, or $770 m) is not enormous.\" xiii On the monetary front, \"high interest rates are xiv squeezing manufacturers as well as property companies.\" The Central Bank \"had raised interest rates for offshore borrowers to more than 1,300% to deter xv speculators.\" \"The cost of overnight funds has reached 20% for banks and 25% for finance companies.\" The high interest rates created trouble for the Thai financial intermediaries. Bank \"loans have financed a glut of commercial and residential buildings. In Thailand, the banking system is hobbled by as much as $15 billion in bad debt to the xvi property sector.\" \"Conservative estimates suggest that by the end of last year 20% of their loans were bad. Since then, the proportion has probably risen. Some manufacturing companies as well as property developers have stopped servicing their debts. They have been suffering from high interest rates, and exports have xvii been sluggish.\" \"The high interest rates needed to protect the baht have th pushed many banks and finance companies close to insolvency. On June 27 , the government ordered 16 of the country's 91 finance companies to suspend operations for a month and look for a buyer. It seems that if they fail to find one, they will go out of business. But some of the remaining 75 finance companies and 15 banks are also in deep troubleall the deeper for having borrowed in dollars xviii and lent in baht.\" \"Thailand has $90 billion of foreign debt, over 70% of which is owned by private companies, and many of them relying on the baht's history of stability, have not hedged their currency exposure.\" xix The stock market fell to its lowest level in eight years, with share prices dropping by 65% since early 1994. \"Officials defending their fixation with protecting the xx baht, argue that it is not significantly overvalued.\" \"But, outside the government, many argue that the costs of persisting with the present policy could prove too expensive: indefinite exchange controls, deterring foreign investment; an ever more insolvent financial system, threatening to bankrupt the country; increasing defaults on foreign debt; an inflationary threat from the volume of money printed to bail out the financial sector; ever higher interest rates and a prolonged recession; fiscal austerity far tighter than that envisaged in the budget presented to parliament on June 25; more people losing their jobs.\" xxi Assignment: 1. In May of 1997, what was the best policy for the Thai government with respect to the baht? Defend it, let it float within a broader band, devalue it at a lower pegged level or let it float freely? 2. Why was there a run on the baht? 3. At a lower parity for the baht, who are the winners and losers? What are the implications? 4. What do Thai importers, exporters, dollar borrowers, companies and workers abroad as well as foreign investors in Thailand do when the government defends the May 1997 parity? 5. How sound was the Thai economy in early 1997? 6. How sound was the Thai financial system in early 1997? 7. What would have happened if Thailand had adopted the US dollar as its currency rather than pegging the baht to it? 8. Knowing what happened to Thailand subsequently, does the punishment fit the crimeStep by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started