Question
write the solutions in a way that shows Excel formula What is the expected value/population mean of your Bernoulli variable X ? 5. What are
write the solutions in a way that shows Excel formula
What is the expected value/population mean of your Bernoulli variable X?
5. What are the (population) variance and standard deviation of X? Having computed the latter, comment on how good your guess for X (i.e. the expected value in 4.) really is.
6. Is the distribution of X symmetric about its mean? Why or why not?
7. Instead, now assume that your investment horizon is 15 trading days, where on each day you either can gain a positive net return (Xi=1) or a negative net return (Xi=0). Assume that the random variables Xi, i=1, 2,,15, are independent. The probability of success is still the same as in question 3. above, and it is the same for all i.
What is the probability that you will make a positive net return on 10 (out of the in total 15) following trading days?
8. Under the same assumptions as in question 7. above, what is the probability that you will make a positive net return on more than 11 (out of the in total 15) following trading days?
Date | Closing Price |
20100629 | 23.89 |
20100630 | 23.83 |
20100701 | 21.96 |
20100702 | 19.2 |
20100706 | 16.11 |
20100707 | 15.8 |
20100708 | 17.46 |
20100709 | 17.4 |
20100712 | 17.05 |
20100713 | 18.14 |
20100714 | 19.84 |
20100715 | 19.89 |
20100716 | 20.64 |
20100719 | 21.91 |
20100720 | 20.3 |
20100721 | 20.22 |
20100722 | 21 |
20100723 | 21.29 |
20100726 | 20.95 |
20100727 | 20.55 |
20100728 | 20.72 |
20100729 | 20.35 |
20100730 | 19.94 |
20100802 | 20.92 |
20100803 | 21.95 |
20100804 | 21.26 |
20100805 | 20.45 |
20100806 | 19.59 |
20100809 | 19.6 |
20100810 | 19.03 |
20100811 | 17.9 |
20100812 | 17.6 |
20100813 | 18.32 |
20100816 | 18.78 |
20100817 | 19.15 |
20100818 | 18.77 |
20100819 | 18.79 |
20100820 | 19.1 |
20100823 | 20.13 |
20100824 | 19.2 |
20100825 | 19.9 |
20100826 | 19.75 |
20100827 | 19.7 |
20100830 | 19.87 |
20100831 | 19.48 |
20100901 | 20.45 |
20100902 | 21.06 |
20100903 | 21.05 |
20100907 | 20.54 |
20100908 | 20.9 |
20100909 | 20.71 |
20100910 | 20.17 |
20100913 | 20.72 |
20100914 | 21.12 |
20100915 | 21.98 |
20100916 | 20.94 |
20100917 | 20.23 |
20100920 | 21.055 |
20100921 | 20.77 |
20100922 | 19.87 |
20100923 | 19.56 |
20100924 | 20.1 |
20100927 | 20.53 |
20100928 | 21.4 |
20100929 | 21.98 |
20100930 | 20.405 |
20101001 | 20.6 |
20101004 | 20.99 |
20101005 | 21.12 |
20101006 | 20.46 |
20101007 | 20.43 |
20101008 | 20.43 |
20101011 | 20.24 |
20101012 | 20.24 |
20101013 | 20.54 |
20101014 | 20.75 |
20101015 | 20.54 |
20101018 | 20.23 |
20101019 | 20.05 |
20101020 | 20.65 |
20101021 | 20.75 |
20101022 | 20.72 |
20101025 | 20.85 |
20101026 | 21.36 |
20101027 | 21 |
20101028 | 21.19 |
20101029 | 21.84 |
20101101 | 21.41 |
20101102 | 21.25 |
20101103 | 21.77 |
20101104 | 24.9 |
20101105 | 24.44 |
20101108 | 24.98 |
20101109 | 24.63 |
20101110 | 29.36 |
20101111 | 28.035 |
20101112 | 29.84 |
20101115 | 30.8 |
20101116 | 29.67 |
20101117 | 29.49 |
20101118 | 29.89 |
20101119 | 30.99 |
20101122 | 33.4 |
20101123 | 34.57 |
20101124 | 35.47 |
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