XYZ Co is a prominent company in the FMCG industry. It provides 400 different brands spanning 14 categories of home, personal care and foods products. XYZ is now one of the world's biggest companies. Their first business in the Middle East started in Saudi Arabia in the 1930's and by 1978, the first factory was set up in Jeddah to supply the Middle East region with home and personal care products. In Egypt, XYZ established in 1991 a joint venture with an Egyptian company creating one of the largest FMCG businesses in Egypt. In 2000, XYZ established its tea factory in Borg El Arab to produce high quality tea. The total sales for XYZ (the tea factory) were around 60 Million Egyptian pounds during year 2020. The company is operating under a strategy that aims to provide the best tea tasting experience to its customers (differentiation strategy). Forecasting During the last board of directors meeting, there was a hot discussion about the future of the tea business. The General Manager of the tea business shared the latest sales numbers. He highlighted the constant growth in sales in years 2019, 2020 and 2021. However, the current conditions in Egypt and the world calls for reassessment of their future sales. Thus, the General Manager highlighted the need to reassess the forecasting techniques that they currently use. Month Year 2019 Year 2020 Year 2021 Jan 185000 245000 269000 Feb 219000 235000 255000 Mar 218000 229000 245000 Apr 208000 228000 232000 May 212000 227000 305000 Jun 195000 262000 250000 Jul 258000 219000 237000 Aug 192000 212000 214000 Sep 183000 217000 225000 Oct 205000 200000 225000 Nov 211000 235000 256000 Dec 225000 235000 269000