'XYZ' is a large country and has experienced rapid economic growth over the past 3-4 decades. During this time period, it has grown from being a poor country to an upper-middle income country now. However, there are many inherent contradictions in this growth story. Suppose that you have been hired as a consultant by this country's 'Advisory Council', which has a significant say in how policies are made. Council needs to advise on the shortcomings visible in the socio-economic sphere. They show you the panel data as given in the Exhibit-1.
You are requested to reflect on the following:
- Identify the problem areas faced by the country. Describe shortly why you consider such problem areas worth deeper analysis and consideration.
- What advices you would offer to the advisory council to address the issues so identified? Please also mention why you think that policies/interventions proposed by you would bear the desired results. All the issues identified by you should be discussed separately.
- Which public policy decision making model you would use to address the issues and why? Please also mention what additional inputs, if any, would be required by you or the inputs as given are enough for moving ahead?
Exhibit-1 Sr.No. . Indicator Name 1970 1975 1980 . 1985 . 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 1 GNI per capita (constant 2010 US$) 1209.46 1749.86 2714.24 4530.96 6475.98 8222.96 2 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 990 1830 2890 5020 9210 12930 16760 3 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 36.10 38.01 35.31 34.93 36.35 40.94 36.43 45.62 51.09 46.01 43.98 4 GDP growth (annual %) 19.30 8.72 7.83 13.43 3.92 10.95 8.49 11.39 10.64 7.04 5.95 5 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 3.05 16.79 0.35 1.78 3.18 1.44 2.90 6 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$, Million) 57 1659 3487 35849.2 42095.3 104108.6939 243703.4346 242489.3316 155815.3446 7 Military expenditure (% of GDP) 2.49 1.72 1.89 1.99 1.91 1.91 1.89 8 Population, total 862030000 943455000 1008630000 1084035000 1164970000 1230075000 1280400000 1317885000 1350695000 1386395000 1397715000 9 Population living in slums (% of urban population) 43.60 40.50 37.30 32.90 29.10 10 Urban population 142386810 159452730 189947471 240414890 300165618 373035157 452999147 554367818 658498663 761027100 842933962 11 Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) 10.41 39.84 35.94 30.74 28.59 27.03 24.79 20.35 18.66 18.05 17.80 12 Population ages 65 and above, male 12989596 16108864 20364814 25530586 29793411 34838078 40763294 46731565 51606807 60249073 75286452 13 Population ages 65 and above, female 17681069 21320852 25501375 30278991 34119349 38950912 45246223 50818905 56405551 67710850 85062331 14 CO2 emissions (kt) 771617 1145607 1467192 1966553 2442919 3320285 3405180 5896958 8776040 10145005 15 Nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent) 139155 166425 237185 263144 340451 408093 414138 460545 550297 16 Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) 64.44 69.07 71.57 75.71 78.43 79.84 85.87 88.26 17 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2017 PPP) 538.66 362.47 260.45 261.25 220.01 18 CO2 emissions from gaseous fuel consumption (kt) 5507.83 16985.54 27341.15 24840.26 29325.00 42471.19 59845.44 85026.73 199748.82 366949.36 PM2.5 pollution, population exposed to levels exceeding WHO 19 Interim Target-1 value (% of total) 90.79 90.85 92.24 94.33 94.60 86.66 20 Total greenhouse gas emissions (% change from 1990) 29.53 30.56 100.47 187.30 21 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) 527.49 609.46 657.76 767.00 866.83 898.99 1393.69 1954.72 22 Income share held by highest 10% 25.8 30.8 32.6 29.4 23 Income share held by lowest 10% 3.5 2.4 2.6 24 Income share held by highest 20% 40.8 47.1 49 45.4 25 Income share held by fourth 20% 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.3 26 Income share held by third 20% 16.4 14.7 14.3 15.3 27 Income share held by second 20% 12.4 10.1 9.2 10.6 28 Income share held by lowest 20% 8.3 5.8 5.1 6.4 P.S. Please note that the values are not available for all the parameters for all the years; observing the trend, however, would be a good idea in such cases too
