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You are a designer for a company that has been contracted to design and build a coal-fired thermoelectric plant with a capacity of 500 MW,

You are a designer for a company that has been contracted to design and build a coal-fired thermoelectric plant with a capacity of 500 MW, to be installed in the People's Republic of China. It is hoped that the enterprise must be installed and be generating energy in 6 years in order to maintain economic growth. One of the options is to consider a plant conventional that would be operating in 4 years. You must decide whether to continue the conventional project or consider that four years from now it should already be developed a new burning technology that will make the plant more efficient and less polluting, avoiding the use of a gas washing system at the exit chimney for pollution control. However, if chosen by waiting of the new technology, the plant will be operational in 8 years, requiring import energy from another country at a total cost of $0.5 x 109 (already considering the total for two years), during the extra two years of waiting for the operation of the plant. The expectation that the new technology will be available in the next 4 years is 75%. The installation cost of this plant, with new technology, is $1.5 x 109. If current technology is chosen, the cost of the plant, considering the installation of the washing system, it is $2.2 x 109 . As alternative, a more simplified design can be considered, without the installation of a washing system, at a cost of $1.8 x 109 , but with the capacity to allow the installation of such a system, if necessary, at a cost of $0.7 x 109. It is estimated that there is a 60% probability that the use of the washing system. What would your decision be? Justify.

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