Question
You are an analyst working for Goldman Sachs, and you are trying to value the growth potential of a large, established company, Big Industries. Big
You are an analyst working for Goldman Sachs, and you are trying to value the growth potential of a large, established company, Big Industries. Big Industries has a thriving R&D division that has consistently turned out successful products. You estimate that, on average, the division launches two projects every three years, so you estimate that there is a
63 %
chance that a project will be produced every year. Typically, the investment opportunities the R&D division produces require an initial investment of
$ 10.1
million and yield profits of
$ 1.04
million per year that grow at one of three possible growth rates in perpetuity:
3.4 %
,
0.0 %
,
and
negative 3.4 %
.
All three growth rates are equally likely for any given project. These opportunities are always "take it or leave it" opportunities: If they are not undertaken immediately, they disappear forever. Assume that the cost of capital will always remain at
12.1 %
per year. What is the present value of all future growth opportunities Big Industries will produce?
(Hint:
Make sure to round all intermediate calculations to at least four decimal
places.)
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