You are employed at a nonprofit as an industrial and management engineer. You have access to historical monthly donation amounts. The nonprofit is interested in forecasting their monthly donations for the upcoming year so that they can plan what type of services they will offer in their local community. Use the initialization procedures that are the default in the R functions used in class notes.

Month	Period	Donations_Dollars
19-Jan	1	5126
19-Feb	2	3031
19-Mar	3	4621
19-Apr	4	1296
19-May	5	3075
19-Jun	6	2053
19-Jul	7	2098
19-Aug	8	5376
19-Sep	9	2467
19-Oct	10	2441
19-Nov	11	3324
19-Dec	12	5596
20-Jan	13	3623
20-Feb	14	3048
20-Mar	15	5499
20-Apr	16	5258
20-May	17	2473
20-Jun	18	2719
20-Jul	19	2661
20-Aug	20	3079
20-Sep	21	2468
20-Oct	22	2468
20-Nov	23	1195
20-Dec	24	1216
21-Jan	25	4901
21-Feb	26	5353
21-Mar	27	6116
21-Apr	28	5869
21-May	29	1069
21-Jun	30	3089
21-Jul	31	1621
21-Aug	32	2181
21-Sep	33	3046
21-Oct	34	5315

1. Conduct a 3-period moving average and provide your donation forecast for months 35 to 40.
2. Conduct a simple exponential smoothing forecast and provide your donation forecast for months 35 to 40. Also, provide the 80% prediction interval and the 95% prediction intervals lower and upper bounds of your forecasts. What value(s) for this methods input parameters do you recommend? In your own words, explain your recommendation and how you obtained it.
3. Use the largest subset of periods that is a fair comparison for both methods to provide the mean squared error (MSE) forecasting measure for your 3-period moving average and your exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Identify over what periods these MSE values are calculated over.
4. Do you recommend using the 3-period moving average, the simple exponential smoothing forecast or neither of them to plan your nonprofits service commitments for the 6 months? In your own words, justify your answer. To receive full credit, you must justify your answer using quantitative evidence.