You are given the following information, comprising of an individual’s expenses for the year 2018. Use the information provided to forecast the expenses for the year 2019.

Month	Expenses
January	1988
February	820
March	970
April	1094
May	1220
June	1281
July	1400
August	1788
September	895
October	2208
November	1824
December	1954

1. Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period moving average.
2. Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period weighted moving average. Use 0.8 & 0.5 for the weights of the most recent and second most recent periods respectfully.
3. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast using α=0.1. Assume the forecast for the first month is the actual expenses for that month.
4. Evaluate the accuracy of each method, using the MAD and MSE.
5. Which forecasting method is the most accurate and why?