Question
You are given the following information concerning past workers compensation losses for Doom Factory, Inc (DFI): Accident Year Period Ultimate WC Frequency Number of Employees
You are given the following information concerning past workers compensation losses for Doom Factory, Inc (DFI):
Accident Year | Period | Ultimate WC Frequency | Number of Employees | Incident Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 1 | 6,832 | 14,350 | |
2014 | 2 | 6,984 | 14,750 | |
2015 | 3 | 7,068 | 15,005 | |
2016 | 4 | 7,253 | 15,460 | |
2017 | 5 | 7,892 | 16,893 | |
2018 | 6 | 8,124 | 17,439 | |
2019 | 7 | 8,250 | 17,821 |
Accident Year | Period | Ultimate WC Frequency | Ultimate WC Losses (000's) | Average Severity |
---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 1 | 6,832 | 8,325 | |
2014 | 2 | 6,984 | 11,289 | |
2015 | 3 | 7,068 | 16,036 | |
2016 | 4 | 7,253 | 24,012 | |
2017 | 5 | 7,892 | 34,213 | |
2018 | 6 | 8,124 | 50,183 | |
2019 | 7 | 8,250 | 73,565 |
Given this information, compute the following information for DFI:
- The incident rates for 2013-2019. Using these rates, fit an estimation model and provide a forecast for the incident rate for 2020. Show your model. Also show any graphs necessary to justify the model you create.
- The average severity for 2013-2019. Using these figures, fit an estimation model and provide a forecast for the average severity for 2020. Show your model. Also show any graphs necessary to justify the model you create.
- DFI estimates that it will have 18,150 workers in 2019. Based on the forecasts you determine for the incident rate and average severity, give a forecast of the WC losses for 2020. Show your calculations.
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