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You are managing the introduction of a new product and would like to conduct a test-run at a regional level before embarking on a nationwide

You are managing the introduction of a new product and would like to conduct a test-run at a regional level before embarking on a nationwide launch of the product. There are three regions of the country where such a test-run could be conducted: Alberta; Atlantic Canada; and Ontario. However, uncertainty exists regarding the actual payoffs from the test-runs. More specifically, for each region, three revenue numbers and their respective probabilities have been made available by the consultants as depicted in the payoff table below.

Decision

Payoffs ($)

High

Medium

Low

Alberta

60,000

50,000

-5,000

Atlantic Canada

56,901

51,075

-7,000

Ontario

75,000

51,000

-20,000

Probability

0.3

0.4

0.3

  1. Which region will you choose if your objective is to maximize expected payoff? (4 points) (Please show ALL FORMULAS AND STEPS IN EXCEL)
  2. What is the expected value of perfect information for this question? (4 points) (Please show ALL FORMULAS AND STEPS IN EXCEL)
  3. What is your decision if you are a risk averse individual? Use an exponential utility function such as Ux=1-e^(-x/R) , where x is the payoff, and R=250,000. (4 points) (Please show ALL FORMULAS AND STEPS IN EXCEL)
    • How would you explain the change from part a)? (4 points)
    • What is the dollar equivalent of the risk-averse decision? (4 points)

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