You are offered the opportunity of lifetime; a financially challenged property developer needs to borrow funds quickly to build a hospital in the emirate. He is willing to double your money and pay you back in around 3 months. He is offering collateral of uncut diamonds, but the collateral will remain in the vault of a local jewellers. You dont believe that you will get your money back in 3 months but think that the developer will possibly pay you back in 12 months and most likely within 36 months. You are trying to decide if the return is worth the risk. You estimate the following probabilities (650 points):

Scenario Outcome Probability

1 100,000 Payback in 12 mos. 20%

2 100,000 Payback in 24 mos. 20%

3 100,000 Payback in 36 mos. 20%

4 250,000 of diamond in 48 mos. 20%

5 0 receive nothing. 20%

You are willing to offer 50,000 and will (hopefully) receive 100,000 upon payoff. You estimate the uncut diamonds are valued at 250,000.

(c) A recession hits after 12 months and you realise that you are unlikely to be repaid. Calculate the outstanding balance on the credit card and loan at 12 months and the monthly payment required on the credit card and weekly payment required on the loan to pay off the balance by the end of 48 months (36 months time).