You are provided the following information on the Mexican Peso:

Current spot rate: $ 0.0900/MP (MP = Mexican Peso)

320-day inflation rate in the US: 15%

320-day inflation rate in Mexico: 35%

320-day Forward rate for the MP @ the US$: $ 0.0922/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 1: $ 0.1300/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 2: $ 0.0811/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 3: $ 0.1399/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 4: $ 0.0825/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 5: $ 0.1100/MP

Forecast of the 320-day rate from agency 6: $ 0.0985/MP

The actual spot rate 320 days from now: $ 0.0922/MP

Question 1

Suppose the forward rate was not available. How can you evaluate which forecast is best? Show explicit calculations and rank the forecasting agencies.