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You are randomly sampling with replacement from an urn of red and blue marbles. Initially there are two, equally likely possibilities: either 1/3 of the

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You are randomly sampling with replacement from an urn of red and blue marbles. Initially there are two, equally likely possibilities: either 1/3 of the marbles are red, or 1/2 of them are red. If 4 of the first 10 draws are red, what is the probability the next draw will be red

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