You are Sydney based market maker charged with providing quotes for BHP. Based on your estimates you believe that BHP will be worth $40 (with 70% probability) or $45 (a 30% probability).

From experience you know that 15% of traders know the true value of BHP (are informed) and 85% buy and sell with equal probability (are uninformed).

What is your breakeven ask price conditional on two successive buy orders?