You can choose today whether to roll out one of two new products, but you can only choose one. Product A has a 45% chance of success, and if successful will pay off $4 million in terms of NPV. If it is a failure, your NPV will be -$250,000.

Product B has a higher chance of success, at 65%. If successful, its NPV will be $2.5 million, and if it fails, it will only lose $50,000. (NPV = -$50,000).

Which product do you choose, and what is the NPV of this project?