Question
You download the last 3 years of daily return data on Apple and use the Fama-French 3-factor model + momentum to evaluate its risk and
You download the last 3 years of daily return data on Apple and use the Fama-French 3-factor model + momentum to evaluate its risk and recent performance. You regress the excess return of apple on the excess market return, the small-minus-big portfolio (SMB), the high-minus-low portfolio (HML), and the momentum portfolio (UMD). Your regression output is as follows:
| Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Lower 95.0% | Upper 95.0% |
Intercept | 0.000349 | 0.000361 | 0.966679 | 0.333954 | -0.00036 | 0.001058 | -0.00036 | 0.001058 |
MKT - RF | 1.199839 | 0.043783 | 27.4041 | 6.7E-122 | 1.113914 | 1.285763 | 1.113914 | 1.285763 |
smb | -0.20862 | 0.075146 | -2.77615 | 0.00561 | -0.35609 | -0.06114 | -0.35609 | -0.06114 |
hml | -0.59654 | 0.071889 | -8.29805 | 3.66E-16 | -0.73762 | -0.45545 | -0.73762 | -0.45545 |
umd | -0.00052 | 0.054404 | -0.00959 | 0.99235 | -0.10729 | 0.106245 | -0.10729 | 0.106245 |
35. Suppose that on a specific day in the recent past, the returns of the MKT-RF, SMB, HML, and UMD portfolios were 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.5%, and 1%, respectively. Based on this regression output, what is the predicted excess return of apple on that same day?
2.4% | ||
0.60% | ||
0.218% | ||
0.253% |
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