You grow corn. You have already invested 60,000 in the crop. The crop will be ready for harvest in a few days. According to the local weather report there is a 50-50 chance of rain. If it rains your crop will be damaged and your revenue will be 50,000. If there is no rain, your revenue will be 90,000.   A pig farm is willing to buy your crop now, as is, for 64,000.  You can buy a specialized micro-climate rain report. The reports costs 1,000. The specialized report does not disclose its accuracy,  but by talking to others who have bought the report you are able to deduce that in 70% of the cases when there was rain, the specialized report also predicted rain. You also deduced that of the days the report predicted rain, there was no rain 20% of the days. What do you do?